Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF show a wide spread in projected highs for Mexico City on April 4, driving the fragmented trader consensus with 25.5% implied probabilities on both 21°C or below and 31°C or higher, and roughly 17% across intervening 1°C bins. At 2,240 meters elevation in a dry-season high-pressure regime, daily maxima typically cluster near the 26°C April climatological average, rarely dropping below 23°C from inversions or cold frontal intrusions or exceeding 30°C amid urban heat island amplification and clear-sky solar heating. Key differentiators include uncertain upper-air trough-ridge evolution and cloud cover; monitor Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and new model runs through April 1 for potential convergence ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?
Highest temperature in Mexico City on April 4?
21°C or below 41%
31°C or higher 41%
22°C 18%
23°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
41%
22°C
18%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
18%
26°C
18%
27°C
17%
28°C
17%
29°C
17%
30°C
17%
31°C or higher
41%
21°C or below 41%
31°C or higher 41%
22°C 18%
23°C 18%
NEW
NEW
Apr 4, 2026
21°C or below
$0 交易量
41%
22°C
$0 交易量
18%
23°C
$0 交易量
18%
24°C
$0 交易量
18%
25°C
$0 交易量
18%
26°C
$0 交易量
18%
27°C
$0 交易量
17%
28°C
$0 交易量
17%
29°C
$0 交易量
17%
30°C
$0 交易量
17%
31°C or higher
$0 交易量
41%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF show a wide spread in projected highs for Mexico City on April 4, driving the fragmented trader consensus with 25.5% implied probabilities on both 21°C or below and 31°C or higher, and roughly 17% across intervening 1°C bins. At 2,240 meters elevation in a dry-season high-pressure regime, daily maxima typically cluster near the 26°C April climatological average, rarely dropping below 23°C from inversions or cold frontal intrusions or exceeding 30°C amid urban heat island amplification and clear-sky solar heating. Key differentiators include uncertain upper-air trough-ridge evolution and cloud cover; monitor Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and new model runs through April 1 for potential convergence ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间： Mar 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ET
交易量
$0结束日期
Apr 4, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF show a wide spread in projected highs for Mexico City on April 4, driving the fragmented trader consensus with 25.5% implied probabilities on both 21°C or below and 31°C or higher, and roughly 17% across intervening 1°C bins. At 2,240 meters elevation in a dry-season high-pressure regime, daily maxima typically cluster near the 26°C April climatological average, rarely dropping below 23°C from inversions or cold frontal intrusions or exceeding 30°C amid urban heat island amplification and clear-sky solar heating. Key differentiators include uncertain upper-air trough-ridge evolution and cloud cover; monitor Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and new model runs through April 1 for potential convergence ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Benito Juárez International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 4 Apr '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Benito Juárez International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMX.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
交易量
$0结束日期
Apr 4, 2026市场开放时间
Mar 29, 2026, 3:57 PM ETResolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/mx/mexico-city/MMMXResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble forecast models like GFS and ECMWF show a wide spread in projected highs for Mexico City on April 4, driving the fragmented trader consensus with 25.5% implied probabilities on both 21°C or below and 31°C or higher, and roughly 17% across intervening 1°C bins. At 2,240 meters elevation in a dry-season high-pressure regime, daily maxima typically cluster near the 26°C April climatological average, rarely dropping below 23°C from inversions or cold frontal intrusions or exceeding 30°C amid urban heat island amplification and clear-sky solar heating. Key differentiators include uncertain upper-air trough-ridge evolution and cloud cover; monitor Servicio Meteorológico Nacional updates and new model runs through April 1 for potential convergence ahead of resolution based on official airport observations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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