Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts modestly toward a maximum temperature of 34°C or below in Lucknow on March 26 (28% implied probability), driven by India Meteorological Department forecasts projecting 34-36°C amid clear skies and moderating northerly winds, tempering earlier heat buildup. Recent observations show March 25 peaking at 35.2°C, aligning with seasonal norms of 32-35°C averages but pressured by low humidity and high solar insolation that amplify diurnal peaks. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cloud development reducing radiative heating for sub-35°C outcomes versus persistent anticyclonic conditions pushing toward 36-37°C; ensemble models diverge by 1-2°C, reflecting urban heat island effects and soil moisture deficits from minimal prior rainfall. Key watch: IMD's evening update.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 26?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 26?
35°C 19%
34°C or below 17%
36°C 17%
37°C 17%
34°C or below
17%
35°C
19%
36°C
17%
37°C
17%
38°C
17%
39°C
17%
40°C
16%
41°C
14%
42°C
13%
43°C
12%
44°C or higher
1%
35°C 19%
34°C or below 17%
36°C 17%
37°C 17%
34°C or below
17%
35°C
19%
36°C
17%
37°C
17%
38°C
17%
39°C
17%
40°C
16%
41°C
14%
42°C
13%
43°C
12%
44°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市场开放时间: Mar 22, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts modestly toward a maximum temperature of 34°C or below in Lucknow on March 26 (28% implied probability), driven by India Meteorological Department forecasts projecting 34-36°C amid clear skies and moderating northerly winds, tempering earlier heat buildup. Recent observations show March 25 peaking at 35.2°C, aligning with seasonal norms of 32-35°C averages but pressured by low humidity and high solar insolation that amplify diurnal peaks. Differentiating factors include potential afternoon cloud development reducing radiative heating for sub-35°C outcomes versus persistent anticyclonic conditions pushing toward 36-37°C; ensemble models diverge by 1-2°C, reflecting urban heat island effects and soil moisture deficits from minimal prior rainfall. Key watch: IMD's evening update.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题