Trader sentiment clusters around 10-20 years of prison time at a 32.4% implied probability, driven by Harvey Weinstein's upheld 16-year California rape conviction from 2022—yet to be fully served—paired with his June 2025 New York guilty verdict for a 2006 criminal sex act that carries up to 25 years maximum. Close competition from no prison time (26.6%) stems from his history of successful appeals, including the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year New York sentence, recent legal team changes, and his deteriorating health aired in a March Rikers Island interview describing conditions as "hell." The April 14 retrial on a third-degree rape charge (max four years) and pending appeals on both convictions represent pivotal catalysts that could slash effective time served via pleas, consecutive sentencing adjustments, or health releases in this protracted #MeToo legal saga.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
10-20年 28.5%
无监禁时间 28.0%
20-30年 18.8%
30年以上 12.3%
$755,152 交易量
$755,152 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
28%
少于5年
9%
5-10年
8%
10-20年
29%
20-30年
19%
30年以上
12%
10-20年 28.5%
无监禁时间 28.0%
20-30年 18.8%
30年以上 12.3%
$755,152 交易量
$755,152 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
$306,896 交易量
28%
少于5年
$64,012 交易量
9%
5-10年
$44,521 交易量
8%
10-20年
$131,543 交易量
29%
20-30年
$161,806 交易量
19%
30年以上
$46,373 交易量
12%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment clusters around 10-20 years of prison time at a 32.4% implied probability, driven by Harvey Weinstein's upheld 16-year California rape conviction from 2022—yet to be fully served—paired with his June 2025 New York guilty verdict for a 2006 criminal sex act that carries up to 25 years maximum. Close competition from no prison time (26.6%) stems from his history of successful appeals, including the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year New York sentence, recent legal team changes, and his deteriorating health aired in a March Rikers Island interview describing conditions as "hell." The April 14 retrial on a third-degree rape charge (max four years) and pending appeals on both convictions represent pivotal catalysts that could slash effective time served via pleas, consecutive sentencing adjustments, or health releases in this protracted #MeToo legal saga.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
交易量
$755,152结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader sentiment clusters around 10-20 years of prison time at a 32.4% implied probability, driven by Harvey Weinstein's upheld 16-year California rape conviction from 2022—yet to be fully served—paired with his June 2025 New York guilty verdict for a 2006 criminal sex act that carries up to 25 years maximum. Close competition from no prison time (26.6%) stems from his history of successful appeals, including the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year New York sentence, recent legal team changes, and his deteriorating health aired in a March Rikers Island interview describing conditions as "hell." The April 14 retrial on a third-degree rape charge (max four years) and pending appeals on both convictions represent pivotal catalysts that could slash effective time served via pleas, consecutive sentencing adjustments, or health releases in this protracted #MeToo legal saga.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$755,152结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment clusters around 10-20 years of prison time at a 32.4% implied probability, driven by Harvey Weinstein's upheld 16-year California rape conviction from 2022—yet to be fully served—paired with his June 2025 New York guilty verdict for a 2006 criminal sex act that carries up to 25 years maximum. Close competition from no prison time (26.6%) stems from his history of successful appeals, including the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year New York sentence, recent legal team changes, and his deteriorating health aired in a March Rikers Island interview describing conditions as "hell." The April 14 retrial on a third-degree rape charge (max four years) and pending appeals on both convictions represent pivotal catalysts that could slash effective time served via pleas, consecutive sentencing adjustments, or health releases in this protracted #MeToo legal saga.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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