Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No Prison Time" at 37% implied probability, driven by jury selection starting April 14 in Harvey Weinstein's third New York retrial on a third-degree rape charge, where acquittal or a plea deal—floated by his team in January—could credit nearly six years already served amid health woes at Rikers Island. This edges out 20-30 years (24%) and 10-20 years (24%), reflecting uncertainty over sentencing on his upheld 2025 New York criminal sex act conviction and a standing 16-year California term, bolstered by the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year sentence setting appeal precedent. As the #MeToo-era Hollywood figure ages into his mid-70s, traders weigh compassionate release potential against prosecutors' push for additional time, with retrial developments as the key near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
Harvey Weinstein入狱时间？
无监禁时间 36.4%
10-20年 24.4%
20-30年 23.7%
30年以上 5.3%
$833,922 交易量
$833,922 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
36%
少于5年
3%
5-10年
5%
10-20年
24%
20-30年
24%
30年以上
5%
无监禁时间 36.4%
10-20年 24.4%
20-30年 23.7%
30年以上 5.3%
$833,922 交易量
$833,922 交易量
2025-12-31
无监禁时间
$317,918 交易量
36%
少于5年
$93,108 交易量
3%
5-10年
$51,976 交易量
5%
10-20年
$138,211 交易量
24%
20-30年
$177,751 交易量
24%
30年以上
$54,970 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No Prison Time" at 37% implied probability, driven by jury selection starting April 14 in Harvey Weinstein's third New York retrial on a third-degree rape charge, where acquittal or a plea deal—floated by his team in January—could credit nearly six years already served amid health woes at Rikers Island. This edges out 20-30 years (24%) and 10-20 years (24%), reflecting uncertainty over sentencing on his upheld 2025 New York criminal sex act conviction and a standing 16-year California term, bolstered by the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year sentence setting appeal precedent. As the #MeToo-era Hollywood figure ages into his mid-70s, traders weigh compassionate release potential against prosecutors' push for additional time, with retrial developments as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ET
交易量
$833,922结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No Prison Time" at 37% implied probability, driven by jury selection starting April 14 in Harvey Weinstein's third New York retrial on a third-degree rape charge, where acquittal or a plea deal—floated by his team in January—could credit nearly six years already served amid health woes at Rikers Island. This edges out 20-30 years (24%) and 10-20 years (24%), reflecting uncertainty over sentencing on his upheld 2025 New York criminal sex act conviction and a standing 16-year California term, bolstered by the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year sentence setting appeal precedent. As the #MeToo-era Hollywood figure ages into his mid-70s, traders weigh compassionate release potential against prosecutors' push for additional time, with retrial developments as the key near-term catalyst.
This market will resolve according to the prison sentence, if any, imposed on Harvey Weinstein as part of his ongoing New York retrial (People of the State of New York v. Harvey Weinstein) by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve immediately based on the first sentence rendered in this case, regardless of any appeals. If Weinstein is found not guilty, there is a mistrial, or if the first sentencing does not include any jail or prison time, this market will resolve to "No Prison Time."
If no sentencing takes place by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will also resolve to "No Prison Time."
If the sentence falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
For the purposes of this market, it does not matter whether the sentence is concurrent or consecutive to any existing sentence Weinstein is already serving. The market will resolve based on the total prison sentence imposed in this case.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the New York court system or other involved U.S. government sources; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$833,922结束日期
2025-12-31市场开放时间
May 12, 2025, 6:47 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward "No Prison Time" at 37% implied probability, driven by jury selection starting April 14 in Harvey Weinstein's third New York retrial on a third-degree rape charge, where acquittal or a plea deal—floated by his team in January—could credit nearly six years already served amid health woes at Rikers Island. This edges out 20-30 years (24%) and 10-20 years (24%), reflecting uncertainty over sentencing on his upheld 2025 New York criminal sex act conviction and a standing 16-year California term, bolstered by the 2024 overturn of his original 23-year sentence setting appeal precedent. As the #MeToo-era Hollywood figure ages into his mid-70s, traders weigh compassionate release potential against prosecutors' push for additional time, with retrial developments as the key near-term catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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