Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter between 65-89 tweets (46.5% implied probability) and 40-64 (43.5%), driven by Elon Musk's notoriously erratic X posting patterns amid fluctuating engagement on Tesla updates, xAI developments, and politics. The prior April 2-4 window resolved at 98 posts—below initial high expectations—capping a week of wild swings from 8 to 61 daily originals, per trackers like @jcubhilton noting 103 total posts (including reposts) on April 4 alone versus 26 on April 3. With roughly 26 core posts logged midway through April 4-6 and no confirmed catalysts like major announcements, the deadlock hinges on April 6's potential for viral threads or steady moderation, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom on celebrity social media volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于65-89 47%
40-64 44%
90-114 11%
115-139 1.8%
$799,032 交易量
$799,032 交易量
2026-04-06
<40
1%
40-64
44%
65-89
47%
90-114
11%
115-139
2%
140-164
<1%
165-189
<1%
190-214
<1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 47%
40-64 44%
90-114 11%
115-139 1.8%
$799,032 交易量
$799,032 交易量
2026-04-06
<40
$219,154 交易量
1%
40-64
$87,926 交易量
44%
65-89
$39,799 交易量
47%
90-114
$63,273 交易量
11%
115-139
$60,496 交易量
2%
140-164
$56,758 交易量
<1%
165-189
$61,029 交易量
<1%
190-214
$71,844 交易量
<1%
215-239
$65,908 交易量
<1%
240+
$73,487 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 4 12:00 PM ET to April 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter between 65-89 tweets (46.5% implied probability) and 40-64 (43.5%), driven by Elon Musk's notoriously erratic X posting patterns amid fluctuating engagement on Tesla updates, xAI developments, and politics. The prior April 2-4 window resolved at 98 posts—below initial high expectations—capping a week of wild swings from 8 to 61 daily originals, per trackers like @jcubhilton noting 103 total posts (including reposts) on April 4 alone versus 26 on April 3. With roughly 26 core posts logged midway through April 4-6 and no confirmed catalysts like major announcements, the deadlock hinges on April 6's potential for viral threads or steady moderation, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom on celebrity social media volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 4 12:00 PM ET to April 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
市场开放时间： Apr 2, 2026, 12:22 PM ET
交易量
$799,032结束日期
2026-04-06市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 4 12:00 PM ET to April 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter between 65-89 tweets (46.5% implied probability) and 40-64 (43.5%), driven by Elon Musk's notoriously erratic X posting patterns amid fluctuating engagement on Tesla updates, xAI developments, and politics. The prior April 2-4 window resolved at 98 posts—below initial high expectations—capping a week of wild swings from 8 to 61 daily originals, per trackers like @jcubhilton noting 103 total posts (including reposts) on April 4 alone versus 26 on April 3. With roughly 26 core posts logged midway through April 4-6 and no confirmed catalysts like major announcements, the deadlock hinges on April 6's potential for viral threads or steady moderation, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom on celebrity social media volatility.
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from April 4 12:00 PM ET to April 6, 2026 12:00 PM ET.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
交易量
$799,032结束日期
2026-04-06市场开放时间
Apr 2, 2026, 12:22 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects a nail-biter between 65-89 tweets (46.5% implied probability) and 40-64 (43.5%), driven by Elon Musk's notoriously erratic X posting patterns amid fluctuating engagement on Tesla updates, xAI developments, and politics. The prior April 2-4 window resolved at 98 posts—below initial high expectations—capping a week of wild swings from 8 to 61 daily originals, per trackers like @jcubhilton noting 103 total posts (including reposts) on April 4 alone versus 26 on April 3. With roughly 26 core posts logged midway through April 4-6 and no confirmed catalysts like major announcements, the deadlock hinges on April 6's potential for viral threads or steady moderation, underscoring prediction markets' crowd wisdom on celebrity social media volatility.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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