Polymarket traders are pricing elevated odds for Gold (GC) futures to close above the specified threshold by end of June, driven primarily by dovish Federal Reserve expectations amid softening U.S. inflation and persistent geopolitical tensions. Spot gold trades around $2,340/oz, up 14% year-to-date, buoyed by record central bank buying (over 1,000 tonnes annualized) from China and India, alongside a weakening USD index near 104. Market-implied probabilities reflect 55-65% consensus for upside, contingent on real yields staying below 2% on the 10-year TIPS. Critical ahead: June 11-12 FOMC meeting, where <10% odds of a rate cut could still spur easing signals, boosting non-yielding assets; post-meeting volatility may hinge on Powell's tone before month-end COMEX expiry.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于$24,071 交易量
8,000美元
2%
$7,000
7%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
6,000美元
10%
5,800美元
22%
5,600美元
26%
$5,400
28%
5,200美元
40%
$5,000
38%
4,800美元
46%
$4,600
51%
$24,071 交易量
8,000美元
2%
$7,000
7%
$6,500
5%
$6,200
9%
6,000美元
10%
5,800美元
22%
5,600美元
26%
$5,400
28%
5,200美元
40%
$5,000
38%
4,800美元
46%
$4,600
51%
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for that trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市场开放时间: Dec 26, 2025, 6:27 PM ET
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0x65070BE91...Polymarket traders are pricing elevated odds for Gold (GC) futures to close above the specified threshold by end of June, driven primarily by dovish Federal Reserve expectations amid softening U.S. inflation and persistent geopolitical tensions. Spot gold trades around $2,340/oz, up 14% year-to-date, buoyed by record central bank buying (over 1,000 tonnes annualized) from China and India, alongside a weakening USD index near 104. Market-implied probabilities reflect 55-65% consensus for upside, contingent on real yields staying below 2% on the 10-year TIPS. Critical ahead: June 11-12 FOMC meeting, where <10% odds of a rate cut could still spur easing signals, boosting non-yielding assets; post-meeting volatility may hinge on Powell's tone before month-end COMEX expiry.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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