Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to "No" for crude oil hitting its all-time high by March 31, 2026, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures trade around $102 per barrel—roughly one-quarter of the $410 peak set in December 2025 amid prior supply shocks. This near-certain pricing stems from the sheer scale needed for an intraday surge exceeding 300%, despite a record March monthly gain of over 40% fueled by escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz threats under U.S. pressure. With trading hours dwindling, ample global inventories and resilient non-OPEC supply underpin confidence. Tail risks include a full Hormuz blockade or massive infrastructure attack, which could unleash volatility spikes, though markets dismiss these as low-probability black swans.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$773,576 交易量
$773,576 交易量
2026-03-31
是
$773,576 交易量
$773,576 交易量
2026-03-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to "No" for crude oil hitting its all-time high by March 31, 2026, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures trade around $102 per barrel—roughly one-quarter of the $410 peak set in December 2025 amid prior supply shocks. This near-certain pricing stems from the sheer scale needed for an intraday surge exceeding 300%, despite a record March monthly gain of over 40% fueled by escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz threats under U.S. pressure. With trading hours dwindling, ample global inventories and resilient non-OPEC supply underpin confidence. Tail risks include a full Hormuz blockade or massive infrastructure attack, which could unleash volatility spikes, though markets dismiss these as low-probability black swans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ET
交易量
$773,576结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to "No" for crude oil hitting its all-time high by March 31, 2026, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures trade around $102 per barrel—roughly one-quarter of the $410 peak set in December 2025 amid prior supply shocks. This near-certain pricing stems from the sheer scale needed for an intraday surge exceeding 300%, despite a record March monthly gain of over 40% fueled by escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz threats under U.S. pressure. With trading hours dwindling, ample global inventories and resilient non-OPEC supply underpin confidence. Tail risks include a full Hormuz blockade or massive infrastructure attack, which could unleash volatility spikes, though markets dismiss these as low-probability black swans.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
交易量
$773,576结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 99.7% implied probability to "No" for crude oil hitting its all-time high by March 31, 2026, as West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures trade around $102 per barrel—roughly one-quarter of the $410 peak set in December 2025 amid prior supply shocks. This near-certain pricing stems from the sheer scale needed for an intraday surge exceeding 300%, despite a record March monthly gain of over 40% fueled by escalating Middle East tensions, including Iran war disruptions and Strait of Hormuz threats under U.S. pressure. With trading hours dwindling, ample global inventories and resilient non-OPEC supply underpin confidence. Tail risks include a full Hormuz blockade or massive infrastructure attack, which could unleash volatility spikes, though markets dismiss these as low-probability black swans.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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