Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 99.6% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its nominal all-time high of $147.27 per barrel—last hit in July 2008—by March 31, 2026, as spot prices hover around $103/bbl amid the market's final trading hours. This high confidence stems from sustained global oversupply dynamics, including record U.S. shale production and OPEC+ output restraint failures, coupled with tepid demand growth from China's economic slowdown, keeping prices capped below $110 despite a recent 20% rally from Middle East tensions like Iran's tanker attack near Dubai. Tail risks include sudden Strait of Hormuz closure or major supply disruptions from escalated Gulf conflicts, though traders see these as low-probability black swans with insufficient time for resolution today.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于是
$777,025 交易量
$777,025 交易量
2026-03-31
是
$777,025 交易量
$777,025 交易量
2026-03-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 99.6% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its nominal all-time high of $147.27 per barrel—last hit in July 2008—by March 31, 2026, as spot prices hover around $103/bbl amid the market's final trading hours. This high confidence stems from sustained global oversupply dynamics, including record U.S. shale production and OPEC+ output restraint failures, coupled with tepid demand growth from China's economic slowdown, keeping prices capped below $110 despite a recent 20% rally from Middle East tensions like Iran's tanker attack near Dubai. Tail risks include sudden Strait of Hormuz closure or major supply disruptions from escalated Gulf conflicts, though traders see these as low-probability black swans with insufficient time for resolution today.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ET
交易量
$777,025结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 99.6% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its nominal all-time high of $147.27 per barrel—last hit in July 2008—by March 31, 2026, as spot prices hover around $103/bbl amid the market's final trading hours. This high confidence stems from sustained global oversupply dynamics, including record U.S. shale production and OPEC+ output restraint failures, coupled with tepid demand growth from China's economic slowdown, keeping prices capped below $110 despite a recent 20% rally from Middle East tensions like Iran's tanker attack near Dubai. Tail risks include sudden Strait of Hormuz closure or major supply disruptions from escalated Gulf conflicts, though traders see these as low-probability black swans with insufficient time for resolution today.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, on any trading day, the official daily high price published by the CME Group for the Active Month (front month) of CME Crude Oil (CL) futures is greater than $147.27 by the final trading day of March 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example, if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
This market will resolve as soon as a high price greater than the listed value is published, or once finalized data for the final trading day of March 2026 is published and a high price greater than $147.27 has not been achieved.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website (https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/energy/crude-oil/light-sweet-crude.quotes.html) — specifically, the daily "High" prices for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
交易量
$777,025结束日期
2026-03-31市场开放时间
Mar 9, 2026, 12:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a near-certain 99.6% implied probability against West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude oil reaching its nominal all-time high of $147.27 per barrel—last hit in July 2008—by March 31, 2026, as spot prices hover around $103/bbl amid the market's final trading hours. This high confidence stems from sustained global oversupply dynamics, including record U.S. shale production and OPEC+ output restraint failures, coupled with tepid demand growth from China's economic slowdown, keeping prices capped below $110 despite a recent 20% rally from Middle East tensions like Iran's tanker attack near Dubai. Tail risks include sudden Strait of Hormuz closure or major supply disruptions from escalated Gulf conflicts, though traders see these as low-probability black swans with insufficient time for resolution today.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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