Robust U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus for a subdued gold (GC) March settlement, pricing an 84.5% implied probability below $4,750 amid skepticism of extreme upside. Gold retreated sharply from its $2,789/oz all-time high after the October 4 nonfarm payrolls report surprised with 254,000 jobs added versus 150,000 expected, holding unemployment at 4.1% and trimming Federal Reserve rate-cut odds to two by year-end from three. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.20%, bolstering the U.S. dollar and elevating real yields—key headwinds for the non-yielding asset. Central bank buying offers a floor, but October CPI data due October 10 remains pivotal for inflation trends and policy expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于低于4,750美元 86%
$4,750-$4,875 10%
4,875-5,000美元 2.6%
$5,000-$5,125 2.3%
$34,667 交易量
$34,667 交易量
低于4,750美元
86%
$4,750-$4,875
10%
4,875-5,000美元
3%
$5,000-$5,125
2%
$5,125-$5,250
1%
$5,250-$5,375
1%
$5,375-$5,500
1%
$5,500-$5,625
1%
5,625-5,750美元
1%
$5,750以上
1%
低于4,750美元 86%
$4,750-$4,875 10%
4,875-5,000美元 2.6%
$5,000-$5,125 2.3%
$34,667 交易量
$34,667 交易量
低于4,750美元
86%
$4,750-$4,875
10%
4,875-5,000美元
3%
$5,000-$5,125
2%
$5,125-$5,250
1%
$5,250-$5,375
1%
$5,375-$5,500
1%
$5,500-$5,625
1%
5,625-5,750美元
1%
$5,750以上
1%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during March.
For CME Gold (GC) futures contracts, the Active Month is the nearest of CME's designated delivery-cycle months (February, April, June, August, October, December) that is not the spot month. The Active Month changes automatically on the contract's First Position Date, at which point the next eligible contract month becomes the Active Month.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during March on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Gold (GC) futures.
市场开放时间: Mar 3, 2026, 2:56 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Robust U.S. economic data has solidified trader consensus for a subdued gold (GC) March settlement, pricing an 84.5% implied probability below $4,750 amid skepticism of extreme upside. Gold retreated sharply from its $2,789/oz all-time high after the October 4 nonfarm payrolls report surprised with 254,000 jobs added versus 150,000 expected, holding unemployment at 4.1% and trimming Federal Reserve rate-cut odds to two by year-end from three. The 10-year Treasury yield climbed above 4.20%, bolstering the U.S. dollar and elevating real yields—key headwinds for the non-yielding asset. Central bank buying offers a floor, but October CPI data due October 10 remains pivotal for inflation trends and policy expectations.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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