Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress toward ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums, driving WTI futures lower into mid-June settlement. With front-month contracts trading near $77–78 amid heavy selling on June 15, trader consensus clusters tightly around the $70–84 range as markets weigh the speed of any supply restoration against ongoing inventory draws and persistent Middle East disruptions. The closely matched 31% and 28% implied probabilities on the $77–84 and $70–77 bins reflect uncertainty over whether a final agreement materializes before month-end or if production outages extend, keeping downside limited while capping upside absent renewed tensions. Macro factors including USD strength and demand signals from China add modest pressure but remain secondary to the geopolitical catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于原油( CL )在6月份的结算时间是什么?
77美元-84美元 34%
70美元至77美元 28.3%
>84美元 19%
$63-$70 9.2%
$241,499 交易量
$241,499 交易量
低于42美元
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
3%
$63-$70
9%
70美元至77美元
28%
77美元-84美元
34%
>84美元
19%
77美元-84美元 34%
70美元至77美元 28.3%
>84美元 19%
$63-$70 9.2%
$241,499 交易量
$241,499 交易量
低于42美元
<1%
$42-$49
<1%
$49-$56
1%
$56-$63
3%
$63-$70
9%
70美元至77美元
28%
77美元-84美元
34%
>84美元
19%
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
市场开放时间: Dec 26, 2025, 6:31 PM ET
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If the final trading day of the month is shortened (for example, due to a market-holiday schedule), the official settlement price published for that shortened session will still be used for resolution. If no settlement price is published for that session, the market will use the most recent published settlement for the Active Month during June.
For CME Crude Oil (CL) futures contracts, the active month is the nearest of the contract months listed. The active month becomes a non-active month effective two business days prior to the spot month expiration. For example; if the spot month expires on a Friday the next listed contract will be considered the Active Month on the Wednesday prior to the spot month expiration.
Only the Active Month's official settlement price published by CME Group will be considered. Intraday trades, highs, lows, bids, offers, midpoint values, or indicative prices do not count.
Note that the settlement price may differ from the last traded price. CME's methodology to determine the settlement price can vary by commodity and contract.
Only days during June on which CME publishes an official settlement price for the Active Month will be included. Days without settlement prices (weekends, holidays, or market closures) are ignored.
This market will resolve based on the settlement price as it appears on the CME settlement page at the time it is first published for the relevant trading day, regardless of any later corrections or updates.
The resolution source for this market is the CME Group website — specifically, the daily "Settlement" price for the Active Month of Crude Oil (CL) futures.
Recent U.S.-Iran diplomatic progress toward ending hostilities and reopening the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a sharp unwinding of geopolitical risk premiums, driving WTI futures lower into mid-June settlement. With front-month contracts trading near $77–78 amid heavy selling on June 15, trader consensus clusters tightly around the $70–84 range as markets weigh the speed of any supply restoration against ongoing inventory draws and persistent Middle East disruptions. The closely matched 31% and 28% implied probabilities on the $77–84 and $70–77 bins reflect uncertainty over whether a final agreement materializes before month-end or if production outages extend, keeping downside limited while capping upside absent renewed tensions. Macro factors including USD strength and demand signals from China add modest pressure but remain secondary to the geopolitical catalyst.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议,也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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