As national selections conclude for Eurovision Song Contest 2026 in Vienna—following Austria's "Wasted Love" triumph last year—trader consensus on Polymarket and bookmakers crowns Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen as frontrunner for top 5 and outright win, with implied probabilities around 35-37% fueled by strong modeling forecasts like The Model and surging hype. Denmark and France chase closely amid recent odds volatility, while Israel's televote dominance and Greece's rapid ascent heighten contention for semis on May 12/14 and final May 16. Returns from Bulgaria, Moldova, and Romania bolster the 35-country field, despite withdrawals by Ireland, Netherlands, Spain, and Slovenia over Israel's entry. Key watch: semi running order reveal April 2 and rehearsals for momentum shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于Eurovision 2026: Top 5
Eurovision 2026: Top 5
$33,405 交易量
Finland
83%
Greece
59%
Israel
56%
Denmark
59%
France
59%
Australia
54%
Sweden
41%
Ukraine
37%
Romania
27%
Italy
33%
Malta
21%
Czechia
18%
Cyprus
17%
Moldova
15%
Armenia
15%
Croatia
14%
Germany
14%
Georgia
13%
Norway
12%
Montenegro
11%
Serbia
11%
Poland
11%
Albania
10%
United Kingdom
10%
San Marino
9%
Luxembourg
9%
Latvia
9%
Estonia
8%
Portugal
8%
Azerbaijan
7%
Switzerland
11%
Belgium
9%
Lithuania
11%
Bulgaria
15%
Austria
9%
$33,405 交易量
Finland
83%
Greece
59%
Israel
56%
Denmark
59%
France
59%
Australia
54%
Sweden
41%
Ukraine
37%
Romania
27%
Italy
33%
Malta
21%
Czechia
18%
Cyprus
17%
Moldova
15%
Armenia
15%
Croatia
14%
Germany
14%
Georgia
13%
Norway
12%
Montenegro
11%
Serbia
11%
Poland
11%
Albania
10%
United Kingdom
10%
San Marino
9%
Luxembourg
9%
Latvia
9%
Estonia
8%
Portugal
8%
Azerbaijan
7%
Switzerland
11%
Belgium
9%
Lithuania
11%
Bulgaria
15%
Austria
9%
If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
市场开放时间： Mar 9, 2026, 6:00 PM ET
Resolver
0x65070BE91...If at any point it is impossible for the listed candidate to finish as one of the top 5 highest scorers based on the rules of the competition (i.e. they are eliminated), this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If no winner is announced by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "No".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Eurovision (https://eurovision.tv/), including live footage of Eurovision 2026, however a consensus of credible reporting will suffice.
Resolver
0x65070BE91...As national selections conclude for Eurovision Song Contest 2026 in Vienna—following Austria's "Wasted Love" triumph last year—trader consensus on Polymarket and bookmakers crowns Finland's "Liekinheitin" by Linda Lampenius and Pete Parkkonen as frontrunner for top 5 and outright win, with implied probabilities around 35-37% fueled by strong modeling forecasts like The Model and surging hype. Denmark and France chase closely amid recent odds volatility, while Israel's televote dominance and Greece's rapid ascent heighten contention for semis on May 12/14 and final May 16. Returns from Bulgaria, Moldova, and Romania bolster the 35-country field, despite withdrawals by Ireland, Netherlands, Spain, and Slovenia over Israel's entry. Key watch: semi running order reveal April 2 and rehearsals for momentum shifts.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要 · 更新于
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