Despite repeated public mentions by President Trump of $2,000 tariff dividend checks funded by revenues from Liberation Day tariffs imposed in April 2025—which have generated over $215 billion in fiscal 2025—traders see an 88% implied probability of no formal creation by June 30, 2026. No executive order or signed federal legislation has materialized, facing steep constitutional barriers under Congress's power of the purse, with Democratic lawsuits looming and recent Supreme Court precedents limiting executive spending powers. Bills introduced in March remain stalled amid fiscal conservative opposition and analyses showing projected costs exceeding tariff inflows, tempering expectations ahead of midterm elections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-06-30
是
最新
最新
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite repeated public mentions by President Trump of $2,000 tariff dividend checks funded by revenues from Liberation Day tariffs imposed in April 2025—which have generated over $215 billion in fiscal 2025—traders see an 88% implied probability of no formal creation by June 30, 2026. No executive order or signed federal legislation has materialized, facing steep constitutional barriers under Congress's power of the purse, with Democratic lawsuits looming and recent Supreme Court precedents limiting executive spending powers. Bills introduced in March remain stalled amid fiscal conservative opposition and analyses showing projected costs exceeding tariff inflows, tempering expectations ahead of midterm elections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
交易量
$8,824結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Despite repeated public mentions by President Trump of $2,000 tariff dividend checks funded by revenues from Liberation Day tariffs imposed in April 2025—which have generated over $215 billion in fiscal 2025—traders see an 88% implied probability of no formal creation by June 30, 2026. No executive order or signed federal legislation has materialized, facing steep constitutional barriers under Congress's power of the purse, with Democratic lawsuits looming and recent Supreme Court precedents limiting executive spending powers. Bills introduced in March remain stalled amid fiscal conservative opposition and analyses showing projected costs exceeding tariff inflows, tempering expectations ahead of midterm elections.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$8,824結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Despite repeated public mentions by President Trump of $2,000 tariff dividend checks funded by revenues from Liberation Day tariffs imposed in April 2025—which have generated over $215 billion in fiscal 2025—traders see an 88% implied probability of no formal creation by June 30, 2026. No executive order or signed federal legislation has materialized, facing steep constitutional barriers under Congress's power of the purse, with Democratic lawsuits looming and recent Supreme Court precedents limiting executive spending powers. Bills introduced in March remain stalled amid fiscal conservative opposition and analyses showing projected costs exceeding tariff inflows, tempering expectations ahead of midterm elections.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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