Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87% implied probability for President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend—such as $2,000 rebate checks funded by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling striking down key IEEPA tariffs, which halted collections by late February and slashed expected revenue. Recent Treasury data shows tariff hauls dropping from 2025 peaks, undermining funding feasibility, while a March bill proposing rebates remains stalled in Congress without committee advancement. Trump distanced himself from the campaign promise in an April interview, prioritizing defense spending in his upcoming budget amid midterm messaging. With three months left and no executive order or legislation advancing, structural barriers and time pressures drive the lopsided odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
最新
最新
2026-06-30
是
最新
最新
2026-06-30
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87% implied probability for President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend—such as $2,000 rebate checks funded by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling striking down key IEEPA tariffs, which halted collections by late February and slashed expected revenue. Recent Treasury data shows tariff hauls dropping from 2025 peaks, undermining funding feasibility, while a March bill proposing rebates remains stalled in Congress without committee advancement. Trump distanced himself from the campaign promise in an April interview, prioritizing defense spending in his upcoming budget amid midterm messaging. With three months left and no executive order or legislation advancing, structural barriers and time pressures drive the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ET
交易量
$8,788結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87% implied probability for President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend—such as $2,000 rebate checks funded by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling striking down key IEEPA tariffs, which halted collections by late February and slashed expected revenue. Recent Treasury data shows tariff hauls dropping from 2025 peaks, undermining funding feasibility, while a March bill proposing rebates remains stalled in Congress without committee advancement. Trump distanced himself from the campaign promise in an April interview, prioritizing defense spending in his upcoming budget amid midterm messaging. With three months left and no executive order or legislation advancing, structural barriers and time pressures drive the lopsided odds.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump Administration formally creates (e.g., by signing federal legislation or performing executive action) a tariff dividend/rebate by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Any bill signed into law or executive action taken within this market's time frame will qualify, regardless of when the law or action goes into effect.
A qualifying payment of any amount distributed to any segment of individual US taxpayers will qualify as long as it is clearly attributed primarily to tariff revenue rather than a routine tax refund or credit.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$8,788結束日期
2026-06-30市場開放時間
Dec 17, 2025, 4:07 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus heavily favors "No" at 87% implied probability for President Trump formally creating a tariff dividend—such as $2,000 rebate checks funded by tariff revenue—by June 30, 2026, reflecting the Supreme Court's February 20 ruling striking down key IEEPA tariffs, which halted collections by late February and slashed expected revenue. Recent Treasury data shows tariff hauls dropping from 2025 peaks, undermining funding feasibility, while a March bill proposing rebates remains stalled in Congress without committee advancement. Trump distanced himself from the campaign promise in an April interview, prioritizing defense spending in his upcoming budget amid midterm messaging. With three months left and no executive order or legislation advancing, structural barriers and time pressures drive the lopsided odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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