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世界·以色列

以色列會在…前在加沙發動重大地面攻勢嗎？

Market icon
世界·以色列

以色列會在…前在加沙發動重大地面攻勢嗎？

$492,507 交易量

Oct 31, 2025
Polymarket

$492,507 交易量

Polymarket

2026年3月31日

$320,748 交易量

2%

6月30日

$8,067 交易量

16%

12月31日

$12,806 交易量

38%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile ceasefire with Hamas, effective since late 2025 and leaving Israel in control of over half of Gaza, anchors current trader consensus amid sporadic airstrikes, including Israeli strikes on Gaza police checkpoints on March 28 that killed six Palestinians—part of over 680 deaths since the truce per local health officials. February reports indicated IDF preparations for a renewed major ground offensive to forcibly disarm Hamas, but no such operation has materialized, overshadowed by regional escalations like Houthi missile attacks on Israel and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. A March 27 U.S.-backed plan proposes staged Hamas disarmament over eight months, potentially delaying escalation, while broader Iran tensions and diplomatic pressures could influence any ground action before the market's resolution date.

A fragile ceasefire with Hamas, effective since late 2025 and leaving Israel in control of over half of Gaza, anchors current trader consensus amid sporadic airstrikes, including Israeli strikes on Gaza police checkpoints on March 28 that killed six Palestinians—part of over 680 deaths since the truce per local health officials. February reports indicated IDF preparations for a renewed major ground offensive to forcibly disarm Hamas, but no such operation has materialized, overshadowed by regional escalations like Houthi missile attacks on Israel and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. A March 27 U.S.-backed plan proposes staged Hamas disarmament over eight months, potentially delaying escalation, while broader Iran tensions and diplomatic pressures could influence any ground action before the market's resolution date.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by March 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by June 30, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by December 31, 2026, 11:59PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to "Yes" if Israel initiates a major ground offensive in Gaza by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". A "major ground offensive" is defined as a large-scale military operation that involves more than 1,000 Israeli ground forces entering Gazan territory that was not under Israeli control at the start of the offensive. This excludes smaller raids, special operations, or limited incursions directly bordering buffer zones already under Israeli control. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.A fragile ceasefire with Hamas, effective since late 2025 and leaving Israel in control of over half of Gaza, anchors current trader consensus amid sporadic airstrikes, including Israeli strikes on Gaza police checkpoints on March 28 that killed six Palestinians—part of over 680 deaths since the truce per local health officials. February reports indicated IDF preparations for a renewed major ground offensive to forcibly disarm Hamas, but no such operation has materialized, overshadowed by regional escalations like Houthi missile attacks on Israel and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. A March 27 U.S.-backed plan proposes staged Hamas disarmament over eight months, potentially delaying escalation, while broader Iran tensions and diplomatic pressures could influence any ground action before the market's resolution date.

A fragile ceasefire with Hamas, effective since late 2025 and leaving Israel in control of over half of Gaza, anchors current trader consensus amid sporadic airstrikes, including Israeli strikes on Gaza police checkpoints on March 28 that killed six Palestinians—part of over 680 deaths since the truce per local health officials. February reports indicated IDF preparations for a renewed major ground offensive to forcibly disarm Hamas, but no such operation has materialized, overshadowed by regional escalations like Houthi missile attacks on Israel and intensified operations against Hezbollah in Lebanon. A March 27 U.S.-backed plan proposes staged Hamas disarmament over eight months, potentially delaying escalation, while broader Iran tensions and diplomatic pressures could influence any ground action before the market's resolution date.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"以色列會在…前在加沙發動重大地面攻勢嗎？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 5 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 38%, followed by "6月30日" at 16%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 38¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "以色列會在…前在加沙發動重大地面攻勢嗎？" has generated $492.5K in total trading volume since the market launched on Oct 19, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "以色列會在…前在加沙發動重大地面攻勢嗎？," browse the 5 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "以色列會在…前在加沙發動重大地面攻勢嗎？" is "12月31日" at 38%, meaning the market assigns a 38% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "6月30日" at 16%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "以色列會在…前在加沙發動重大地面攻勢嗎？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.