Trader consensus gives Anthropic a 97.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's consistent #2 ranking behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4, with an Elo score gap solidifying after its early March release. Anthropic's edge stems from superior coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (78.7%) and WebDev Arena (near-top scores), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok-4 in recent evaluations. No major rival updates in the past week have narrowed the gap, reflecting skin-in-the-game agreement on leaderboard stability. Challenges could arise from late Google Gemini previews or voting volatility, though time constraints make shifts unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Anthropic 97.4%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$528,688 交易量
$528,688 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
97%
xAI
1%
DeepSeek
<1%
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
百度
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
美團
<1%
Anthropic 97.4%
xAI <1%
DeepSeek <1%
Google <1%
$528,688 交易量
$528,688 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
Anthropic
$95,883 交易量
97%
xAI
$54,108 交易量
1%
DeepSeek
$152,800 交易量
<1%
$122,141 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$39,631 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$0 交易量
<1%
百度
$0 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$0 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$64,125 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$0 交易量
<1%
美團
$0 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus gives Anthropic a 97.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's consistent #2 ranking behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4, with an Elo score gap solidifying after its early March release. Anthropic's edge stems from superior coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (78.7%) and WebDev Arena (near-top scores), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok-4 in recent evaluations. No major rival updates in the past week have narrowed the gap, reflecting skin-in-the-game agreement on leaderboard stability. Challenges could arise from late Google Gemini previews or voting volatility, though time constraints make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$528,688結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus gives Anthropic a 97.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's consistent #2 ranking behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4, with an Elo score gap solidifying after its early March release. Anthropic's edge stems from superior coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (78.7%) and WebDev Arena (near-top scores), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok-4 in recent evaluations. No major rival updates in the past week have narrowed the gap, reflecting skin-in-the-game agreement on leaderboard stability. Challenges could arise from late Google Gemini previews or voting volatility, though time constraints make shifts unlikely.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the second-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with the style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the second best arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g. if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$528,688結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus gives Anthropic a 97.5% implied probability for the second-best AI model on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena text leaderboard by March 31, driven by Claude Opus 4.6's consistent #2 ranking behind OpenAI's GPT-5.4, with an Elo score gap solidifying after its early March release. Anthropic's edge stems from superior coding benchmarks like SWE-bench Verified (78.7%) and WebDev Arena (near-top scores), outpacing Google's Gemini 3.1 Pro and xAI's Grok-4 in recent evaluations. No major rival updates in the past week have narrowed the gap, reflecting skin-in-the-game agreement on leaderboard stability. Challenges could arise from late Google Gemini previews or voting volatility, though time constraints make shifts unlikely.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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