Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro commands a 95.8% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control on) by end of March, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital after stable rankings solidified post-Claude 3's March 4 launch. Anthropic's Opus and Sonnet variants captured #1 and #2 via superior Elo scores in benchmarks testing reasoning, coding, and vision capabilities, while Gemini 1.5 Pro's long-context window and multimodal strengths secured third amid minimal competition. No major model releases from xAI, OpenAI, or others disrupted this in late March, with Grok updates trailing far behind. Challenges could arise from leaderboard volatility in final battles or an unannounced tweak pushing rivals like DeepSeek ahead, though such shifts are rare near month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Google 95.2%
xAI 2.7%
Anthropic 1.4%
Z.ai <1%
$350,911 交易量
$350,911 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
95%
xAI
3%
Anthropic
1%
Z.ai
<1%
Mistral
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美團
<1%
Google 95.2%
xAI 2.7%
Anthropic 1.4%
Z.ai <1%
$350,911 交易量
$350,911 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
$36,826 交易量
95%
xAI
$29,086 交易量
3%
Anthropic
$18,707 交易量
1%
Z.ai
$129,990 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$15,811 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$22,992 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$30,415 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$36,112 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$19,343 交易量
<1%
美團
$11,628 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro commands a 95.8% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control on) by end of March, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital after stable rankings solidified post-Claude 3's March 4 launch. Anthropic's Opus and Sonnet variants captured #1 and #2 via superior Elo scores in benchmarks testing reasoning, coding, and vision capabilities, while Gemini 1.5 Pro's long-context window and multimodal strengths secured third amid minimal competition. No major model releases from xAI, OpenAI, or others disrupted this in late March, with Grok updates trailing far behind. Challenges could arise from leaderboard volatility in final battles or an unannounced tweak pushing rivals like DeepSeek ahead, though such shifts are rare near month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$350,911結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro commands a 95.8% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control on) by end of March, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital after stable rankings solidified post-Claude 3's March 4 launch. Anthropic's Opus and Sonnet variants captured #1 and #2 via superior Elo scores in benchmarks testing reasoning, coding, and vision capabilities, while Gemini 1.5 Pro's long-context window and multimodal strengths secured third amid minimal competition. No major model releases from xAI, OpenAI, or others disrupted this in late March, with Grok updates trailing far behind. Challenges could arise from leaderboard volatility in final battles or an unannounced tweak pushing rivals like DeepSeek ahead, though such shifts are rare near month-end.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$350,911結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Google's Gemini 1.5 Pro commands a 95.8% implied probability for holding the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (style control on) by end of March, reflecting trader consensus backed by real capital after stable rankings solidified post-Claude 3's March 4 launch. Anthropic's Opus and Sonnet variants captured #1 and #2 via superior Elo scores in benchmarks testing reasoning, coding, and vision capabilities, while Gemini 1.5 Pro's long-context window and multimodal strengths secured third amid minimal competition. No major model releases from xAI, OpenAI, or others disrupted this in late March, with Grok updates trailing far behind. Challenges could arise from leaderboard volatility in final battles or an unannounced tweak pushing rivals like DeepSeek ahead, though such shifts are rare near month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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