Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94% implied probability to Google securing the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by month's end, driven by Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental's sustained third-place Elo ranking in the latest March 27 snapshot, behind Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet and OpenAI's o1-preview. No major model releases from rivals like xAI's Grok-3 or DeepSeek have materialized in the past week, with developers citing training delays and benchmark stability reinforcing Google's position amid a competitive large language model landscape. While a surprise preview drop could challenge this—such as xAI accelerating Grok-3—the tight timeline to March 31 leaves little room for leaderboard shifts absent official announcements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Google 95.0%
xAI 3.8%
Anthropic 1.6%
OpenAI <1%
$348,887 交易量
$348,887 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
95%
xAI
4%
Anthropic
2%
OpenAI
<1%
Z.ai
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
Mistral
<1%
阿里巴巴
<1%
Moonshot
<1%
美團
<1%
Google 95.0%
xAI 3.8%
Anthropic 1.6%
OpenAI <1%
$348,887 交易量
$348,887 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
$36,629 交易量
95%
xAI
$27,750 交易量
4%
Anthropic
$18,624 交易量
2%
OpenAI
$30,329 交易量
<1%
Z.ai
$129,907 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$36,028 交易量
<1%
Mistral
$15,811 交易量
<1%
阿里巴巴
$22,909 交易量
<1%
Moonshot
$19,343 交易量
<1%
美團
$11,628 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94% implied probability to Google securing the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by month's end, driven by Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental's sustained third-place Elo ranking in the latest March 27 snapshot, behind Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet and OpenAI's o1-preview. No major model releases from rivals like xAI's Grok-3 or DeepSeek have materialized in the past week, with developers citing training delays and benchmark stability reinforcing Google's position amid a competitive large language model landscape. While a surprise preview drop could challenge this—such as xAI accelerating Grok-3—the tight timeline to March 31 leaves little room for leaderboard shifts absent official announcements.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ET
交易量
$348,887結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94% implied probability to Google securing the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by month's end, driven by Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental's sustained third-place Elo ranking in the latest March 27 snapshot, behind Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet and OpenAI's o1-preview. No major model releases from rivals like xAI's Grok-3 or DeepSeek have materialized in the past week, with developers citing training delays and benchmark stability reinforcing Google's position amid a competitive large language model landscape. While a surprise preview drop could challenge this—such as xAI accelerating Grok-3—the tight timeline to March 31 leaves little room for leaderboard shifts absent official announcements.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model with the third-highest arena score based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on March 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Arena Score" section on the Leaderboard tab of https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text set to default (style control on) will be used to resolve this market.
If two models are tied for the third-highest arena score at this market's check time, resolution will be based on whichever company's name, as it is described in this market group, comes first in alphabetical order (e.g., if both were tied, "Google" would resolve to "Yes", and "xAI" would resolve to "No")
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and resolves based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$348,887結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 2, 2025, 6:02 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket assigns a 94% implied probability to Google securing the #3 spot on the LMSYS Chatbot Arena leaderboard (Style Control On) by month's end, driven by Gemini 2.0 Flash Experimental's sustained third-place Elo ranking in the latest March 27 snapshot, behind Anthropic's Claude 3.5 Sonnet and OpenAI's o1-preview. No major model releases from rivals like xAI's Grok-3 or DeepSeek have materialized in the past week, with developers citing training delays and benchmark stability reinforcing Google's position amid a competitive large language model landscape. While a surprise preview drop could challenge this—such as xAI accelerating Grok-3—the tight timeline to March 31 leaves little room for leaderboard shifts absent official announcements.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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