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經濟艙·Jerome Powell

美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？

Market icon
經濟艙·Jerome Powell

美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？

$1,273,036 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$1,273,036 交易量

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$42,444 交易量

4%

↑ 5.25%

$136,128 交易量

5%

↑ 5.0%

$10,015 交易量

4%

↑ 4.75%

$65,847 交易量

4%

↑ 4.5%

$10,285 交易量

6%

↑ 4.25%

$21,882 交易量

9%

↓ 3.25%

$53,428 交易量

71%

↓ 3.0%

$215,832 交易量

34%

↓ 2.75%

$250,422 交易量

19%

↓ 2.5%

$172,020 交易量

19%

↓ 2.25%

$21,904 交易量

11%

↓ 2.0%

$15,041 交易量

11%

↓ 1.75%

$5,963 交易量

9%

↓ 1.5%

$24,836 交易量

9%

↓ 1.25%

$893 交易量

26%

↓ 1.0%

$0 交易量

9%

↓ 0.75%

$388 交易量

12%

↓ 0.5%

$89,265 交易量

6%

↓ 0.25%

$117,253 交易量

6%

↓ 0%

$10,187 交易量

7%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, marking the second consecutive pause amid stubbornly resilient 2.4% year-over-year CPI in February and unemployment edging up to 4.4%. Trader consensus, reflected in CME FedWatch probabilities, prices a 98% chance of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with market-implied paths shifting toward zero or fewer rate cuts through 2026 due to geopolitical oil shocks elevating inflation risks. Key near-term catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls, which could recalibrate expectations for the policy rate trajectory before 2027 amid balanced growth and persistent price pressures.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
交易量
$1,273,036
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve held the federal funds target range steady at 3.5%-3.75% following its March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, marking the second consecutive pause amid stubbornly resilient 2.4% year-over-year CPI in February and unemployment edging up to 4.4%. Trader consensus, reflected in CME FedWatch probabilities, prices a 98% chance of no change at the April 28-29 meeting, with market-implied paths shifting toward zero or fewer rate cuts through 2026 due to geopolitical oil shocks elevating inflation risks. Key near-term catalysts include March CPI data on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls, which could recalibrate expectations for the policy rate trajectory before 2027 amid balanced growth and persistent price pressures.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
交易量
$1,273,036
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by "↓ 3.25%" at 71%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？" is "↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↓ 3.25%" at 71%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.