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經濟艙·Jerome Powell

美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？

Market icon
經濟艙·Jerome Powell

美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？

$1,277,552 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$1,277,552 交易量

Polymarket

↑ 5.5%

$43,014 交易量

4%

↑ 5.25%

$136,294 交易量

5%

↑ 5.0%

$10,055 交易量

3%

↑ 4.75%

$65,847 交易量

4%

↑ 4.5%

$10,972 交易量

5%

↑ 4.25%

$22,181 交易量

9%

↓ 3.25%

$53,849 交易量

55%

↓ 3.0%

$216,065 交易量

34%

↓ 2.75%

$250,453 交易量

19%

↓ 2.5%

$172,177 交易量

17%

↓ 2.25%

$22,790 交易量

7%

↓ 2.0%

$15,062 交易量

9%

↓ 1.75%

$5,983 交易量

9%

↓ 1.5%

$24,836 交易量

9%

↓ 1.25%

$893 交易量

25%

↓ 1.0%

$0 交易量

9%

↓ 0.75%

$388 交易量

8%

↓ 0.5%

$89,298 交易量

7%

↓ 0.25%

$118,171 交易量

7%

↓ 0%

$10,220 交易量

8%

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the effective rate at 3.64%, reflecting balanced risks amid persistent inflation near 2.4% YoY in February CPI data. Yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000—versus 59,000 anticipated—and unemployment dipping to 4.3% have reinforced trader sentiment for no immediate cuts, as CME FedWatch Tool implies over 94% odds of a hold at the April 28-29 meeting. The March dot plot median envisions one 25-basis-point reduction to 3.4% by end-2026 and further to 3.1% in 2027, though markets price a shallower path amid resilient labor conditions. Key catalysts include March CPI on April 10 and subsequent FOMC gatherings through 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
交易量
$1,277,552
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.The Federal Reserve has held its federal funds target range steady at 3.50%-3.75% since the March 18, 2026 FOMC meeting, with the effective rate at 3.64%, reflecting balanced risks amid persistent inflation near 2.4% YoY in February CPI data. Yesterday's stronger-than-expected March nonfarm payrolls of 178,000—versus 59,000 anticipated—and unemployment dipping to 4.3% have reinforced trader sentiment for no immediate cuts, as CME FedWatch Tool implies over 94% odds of a hold at the April 28-29 meeting. The March dot plot median envisions one 25-basis-point reduction to 3.4% by end-2026 and further to 3.1% in 2027, though markets price a shallower path amid resilient labor conditions. Key catalysts include March CPI on April 10 and subsequent FOMC gatherings through 2027.

The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.”

Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered.

The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at:
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.

This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.
交易量
$1,277,552
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 18, 2025, 3:37 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the lower or the upper bound of the target federal funds rate reaches the specified level at any point by December 31, 2026, 12:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Emergency rate cuts and hikes outside the regularly scheduled meetings will be considered. The resolution source for this market is the official website of the Federal Reserve at: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm. This market may resolve as soon as the relevant data showing the reached level is published.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 21 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "↓ 3.5%" at 100%, followed by "↓ 3.25%" at 56%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？" has generated $1.3 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 18, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？," browse the 21 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？" is "↓ 3.5%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "↓ 3.25%" at 56%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美聯儲利率在2027年之前會受到什麼衝擊？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.