Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's dominant fundraising—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late 2025—bolsters trader consensus on a 57% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in Washington's top-two primary system, where the August 4 contest advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party. A crowded field of seven declared candidates, including two Republicans (state Sen. John Braun and Wadi Yakhour), two Democrats, and independents from Cascade Party and no party preference, fragments GOP support at 23%, risking exclusion from the November 3 general amid the district's R+2 partisan lean. Recent filings through March underscore primary volatility, with Cook Political Report rating it a Toss-up and others tilting Democratic; no public polls have emerged in the past month.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主黨
56%
共和黨
39%
NEW
NEW
Nov 4, 2026
民主黨
$0 交易量
56%
共和黨
$0 交易量
39%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's dominant fundraising—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late 2025—bolsters trader consensus on a 57% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in Washington's top-two primary system, where the August 4 contest advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party. A crowded field of seven declared candidates, including two Republicans (state Sen. John Braun and Wadi Yakhour), two Democrats, and independents from Cascade Party and no party preference, fragments GOP support at 23%, risking exclusion from the November 3 general amid the district's R+2 partisan lean. Recent filings through March underscore primary volatility, with Cook Political Report rating it a Toss-up and others tilting Democratic; no public polls have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 4, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's dominant fundraising—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late 2025—bolsters trader consensus on a 57% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in Washington's top-two primary system, where the August 4 contest advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party. A crowded field of seven declared candidates, including two Republicans (state Sen. John Braun and Wadi Yakhour), two Democrats, and independents from Cascade Party and no party preference, fragments GOP support at 23%, risking exclusion from the November 3 general amid the district's R+2 partisan lean. Recent filings through March underscore primary volatility, with Cook Political Report rating it a Toss-up and others tilting Democratic; no public polls have emerged in the past month.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the WA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 4, 2026市場開放時間
Dec 16, 2025, 1:15 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Perez's dominant fundraising—over $2.4 million cash on hand as of late 2025—bolsters trader consensus on a 57% implied probability for Democratic Party victory in Washington's top-two primary system, where the August 4 contest advances the top two vote-getters regardless of party. A crowded field of seven declared candidates, including two Republicans (state Sen. John Braun and Wadi Yakhour), two Democrats, and independents from Cascade Party and no party preference, fragments GOP support at 23%, risking exclusion from the November 3 general amid the district's R+2 partisan lean. Recent filings through March underscore primary volatility, with Cook Political Report rating it a Toss-up and others tilting Democratic; no public polls have emerged in the past month.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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