Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for 2026 centers tightly around 800–900 billion dollars at 35% implied probability and 900 billion–1 trillion at 28%, reflecting volatile early-year data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis amid President Trump's post-inauguration tariffs implemented a year ago on "Liberation Day." February's goods and services deficit widened modestly 4.9% to $57.3 billion after January's sharp 25% narrowing to $54.5 billion, as record exports were offset by rising imports, annualizing toward the mid-700s billion range so far but with zigzags tied to tariff adjustments, court challenges, and trade partner responses. Official claims highlight a 24% drop in the overall goods deficit since April 2025, yet skeptics note limited net impact amid strong US consumer demand. Upcoming monthly releases, potential new tariffs, or economic shifts like slower growth could widen the gap between bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$17,416 交易量
$17,416 交易量
2027-02-28
少於5000億
9%
5000–6000億
7%
6,000–7,000億
6%
7000億–8000億
12%
8,000億–9,000億
35%
9,000億–1兆
28%
1兆–1.1兆
13%
1.1兆以上
16%
$17,416 交易量
$17,416 交易量
2027-02-28
少於5000億
$16,379 交易量
9%
5000–6000億
$0 交易量
7%
6,000–7,000億
$0 交易量
6%
7000億–8000億
$0 交易量
12%
8,000億–9,000億
$0 交易量
35%
9,000億–1兆
$635 交易量
28%
1兆–1.1兆
$0 交易量
13%
1.1兆以上
$402 交易量
16%
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for 2026 centers tightly around 800–900 billion dollars at 35% implied probability and 900 billion–1 trillion at 28%, reflecting volatile early-year data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis amid President Trump's post-inauguration tariffs implemented a year ago on "Liberation Day." February's goods and services deficit widened modestly 4.9% to $57.3 billion after January's sharp 25% narrowing to $54.5 billion, as record exports were offset by rising imports, annualizing toward the mid-700s billion range so far but with zigzags tied to tariff adjustments, court challenges, and trade partner responses. Official claims highlight a 24% drop in the overall goods deficit since April 2025, yet skeptics note limited net impact amid strong US consumer demand. Upcoming monthly releases, potential new tariffs, or economic shifts like slower growth could widen the gap between bins.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
交易量
$17,416結束日期
2027-02-28市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for 2026 centers tightly around 800–900 billion dollars at 35% implied probability and 900 billion–1 trillion at 28%, reflecting volatile early-year data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis amid President Trump's post-inauguration tariffs implemented a year ago on "Liberation Day." February's goods and services deficit widened modestly 4.9% to $57.3 billion after January's sharp 25% narrowing to $54.5 billion, as record exports were offset by rising imports, annualizing toward the mid-700s billion range so far but with zigzags tied to tariff adjustments, court challenges, and trade partner responses. Official claims highlight a 24% drop in the overall goods deficit since April 2025, yet skeptics note limited net impact amid strong US consumer demand. Upcoming monthly releases, potential new tariffs, or economic shifts like slower growth could widen the gap between bins.
This market will resolve according to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026, as reported by the US Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) and the US Census Bureau (USCB) in the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026, expected to be released in February 2027.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
Upon publication, the specified release will be made available at: https://www.bea.gov/news/current-releases
The relevant figure may be found in the annual summary under “Exports, Imports, and Balance (exhibit 1)”. Changes in the BEA or USCB’s reporting format will not disqualify a relevant published figure from counting.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 from the US Bureau of Economic Analysis and the US Census Bureau. If this release is not published by April 30, 2027 ET, another credible source on the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 will be chosen.
Note: any revisions to the annual US Goods and Services Deficit for 2026 made after the publication of the “U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services” release for December and Annual 2026 will not be considered.
交易量
$17,416結束日期
2027-02-28市場開放時間
Feb 25, 2026, 7:24 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on the US trade deficit for 2026 centers tightly around 800–900 billion dollars at 35% implied probability and 900 billion–1 trillion at 28%, reflecting volatile early-year data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis amid President Trump's post-inauguration tariffs implemented a year ago on "Liberation Day." February's goods and services deficit widened modestly 4.9% to $57.3 billion after January's sharp 25% narrowing to $54.5 billion, as record exports were offset by rising imports, annualizing toward the mid-700s billion range so far but with zigzags tied to tariff adjustments, court challenges, and trade partner responses. Official claims highlight a 24% drop in the overall goods deficit since April 2025, yet skeptics note limited net impact amid strong US consumer demand. Upcoming monthly releases, potential new tariffs, or economic shifts like slower growth could widen the gap between bins.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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