Market icon
地緣政治·特朗普

美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？

Market icon
地緣政治·特朗普

美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？

$103,241,340 交易量

2026-03-03
Polymarket

$103,241,340 交易量

Polymarket

3月31日

$71,786,544 交易量

<1%

4月30日

$20,496,656 交易量

66%

12月31日

$8,883,975 交易量

76%

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid over five weeks of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership since February 28, 2026, no US ground forces have entered Iran as of April 3, positioning trader consensus toward potential escalation without confirmed boots on the ground. President Trump has declared military objectives nearing completion while vowing harder hits on remaining targets like Kharg Island oil facilities, amid deployments swelling US regional troops beyond 50,000, including Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne. Iran's rejection of a US diplomatic proposal and proxy reinforcements signal rising risks of limited ground operations or island seizures, with public skepticism and logistical constraints on further airstrikes as key watchpoints.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$103,241,340
市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: 否

無爭議

最終結果: 否

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify; however, intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting. Note: Only US military personnel who deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran for operational purposes (e.g., military, humanitarian, etc.) will qualify. Pilots who are shot down, or other cases in which US military personnel do not deliberately enter the terrestrial territory of Iran, will not qualify.Amid over five weeks of intense US-Israeli airstrikes on Iranian military infrastructure, nuclear sites, and leadership since February 28, 2026, no US ground forces have entered Iran as of April 3, positioning trader consensus toward potential escalation without confirmed boots on the ground. President Trump has declared military objectives nearing completion while vowing harder hits on remaining targets like Kharg Island oil facilities, amid deployments swelling US regional troops beyond 50,000, including Marine Expeditionary Units and the 82nd Airborne. Iran's rejection of a US diplomatic proposal and proxy reinforcements signal rising risks of limited ground operations or island seizures, with public skepticism and logistical constraints on further airstrikes as key watchpoints.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count.

US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count.

Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify.

The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$103,241,340
市場開放時間
Feb 28, 2026, 8:59 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to “Yes” if active US military personnel physically enter Iran at any point by the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Military special operation forces will qualify, however intelligence operatives will not count. US military personnel must physically enter the terrestrial territory of Iran to qualify. Entering Iran's maritime or aerial territory will not count. Military contractors, military advisors, or high-ranking US service members entering Iran for diplomatic purposes (and their accompanying entourage) will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.

已提議結果: 否

無爭議

最終結果: 否

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "12月31日" at 76%, followed by "4月30日" at 66%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 76¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" has generated $103.2 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 11, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" is "12月31日" at 76%, meaning the market assigns a 76% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4月30日" at 66%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "美軍進入伊朗的時間... ？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.