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政治·主要

TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者

Market icon
政治·主要

TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者

基督徒梅內菲 72.8%

Al Green 25.3%

阿曼達·愛德華茲 <1%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Polymarket

$14,990 交易量

基督徒梅內菲 72.8%

Al Green 25.3%

阿曼達·愛德華茲 <1%

Gretchen Brown <1%

Polymarket

$14,990 交易量

基督徒梅內菲

$11,633 交易量

73%

Al Green

$3,357 交易量

25%

阿曼達·愛德華茲

$0 交易量

<1%

Gretchen Brown

$0 交易量

<1%

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee at 73% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff against Rep. Al Green on May 26, driven by Menefee's 46%-44% first-round lead in the March 3 primary amid low turnout of about 95,000 votes, his January special election victory filling the vacancy left by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner, and consistent polling edges of 5–24 points from University of Houston and Lake Research surveys. Redistricting fused Green's longtime district into the safely Democratic TX-18, pitting two incumbents, but Menefee's profile as former Harris County attorney and recent endorsements, including from state Rep. La'Sha Simmons, bolster his momentum heading into the low-turnout runoff, where Edwards (7.7%) and Brown (2%) were eliminated.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$14,990
結束日期
2026-05-26
市場開放時間
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.Trader consensus heavily favors incumbent Rep. Christian Menefee at 73% implied probability to win the TX-18 Democratic primary runoff against Rep. Al Green on May 26, driven by Menefee's 46%-44% first-round lead in the March 3 primary amid low turnout of about 95,000 votes, his January special election victory filling the vacancy left by the late Rep. Sylvester Turner, and consistent polling edges of 5–24 points from University of Houston and Lake Research surveys. Redistricting fused Green's longtime district into the safely Democratic TX-18, pitting two incumbents, but Menefee's profile as former Harris County attorney and recent endorsements, including from state Rep. La'Sha Simmons, bolster his momentum heading into the low-turnout runoff, where Edwards (7.7%) and Brown (2%) were eliminated.

This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026.

If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/.

Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
交易量
$14,990
結束日期
2026-05-26
市場開放時間
Feb 4, 2026, 5:13 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the TX-18 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The Democratic primary will take place on March 3, 2026. If no nominee is announced by November 3, 2026, 11:59PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Democrat sources, including https://democrats.org/. Any replacement of the nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "基督徒梅內菲" at 73%, followed by "Al Green" at 25%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 73¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者" has generated $15K in total trading volume since the market launched on Feb 4, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者" is "基督徒梅內菲" at 73%, meaning the market assigns a 73% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Al Green" at 25%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "TX-18民主黨初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.