Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 29, 2026, following the official TSA release this morning confirming exactly 2,758,600 screenings—squarely within that bin. This positioning reflects the ground-truth data amid spring break demand, tempered by a protracted government shutdown now exceeding 40 days, which triggered widespread TSA sickouts (up to 40% at major hubs like Houston), record four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines of around 9% as seen in late-March figures (e.g., March 26 at 2.72M). Absent rare data revisions, no realistic scenarios challenge this resolution, with volumes aligning to disrupted travel patterns versus pre-shutdown peaks near 3M.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於2.6M-2.8M 100.0%
<2.6M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$18,641 交易量
$18,641 交易量
<2.6M
No
2.6M-2.8M
Yes
2.8M-3.0M
No
3.0M-3.2M
No
3.2M-3.4M
No
>3.4M
No
2.6M-2.8M 100.0%
<2.6M <1%
2.8M-3.0M <1%
3.0M-3.2M <1%
$18,641 交易量
$18,641 交易量
<2.6M
No
2.6M-2.8M
Yes
2.8M-3.0M
No
3.0M-3.2M
No
3.2M-3.4M
No
>3.4M
No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
市場開放時間: Mar 23, 2026, 5:55 PM ET
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
If the reported total number of TSA passengers falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve as soon as throughput data becomes available for the listed date. Any revisions published to data for dates December 1, 2025 and onward prior to the release of data for all dates within the listed range will be considered.
If data is not available for the listed date by April 30, 2026, this market will resolve to "Other".
The resolution source for this market will be the daily checkpoint throughputs as measured by the US Transportation Security Administration (TSA), https://www.tsa.gov/travel/passenger-volumes. Should this URL change or move locations, a new URL on the tsa.gov domain will remain valid to resolve this market.
已提議結果: No
無爭議
最終結果: No
Trader consensus on Polymarket has locked in a 100% implied probability for 2.6M-2.8M TSA checkpoint passengers on March 29, 2026, following the official TSA release this morning confirming exactly 2,758,600 screenings—squarely within that bin. This positioning reflects the ground-truth data amid spring break demand, tempered by a protracted government shutdown now exceeding 40 days, which triggered widespread TSA sickouts (up to 40% at major hubs like Houston), record four-hour wait times, and year-over-year declines of around 9% as seen in late-March figures (e.g., March 26 at 2.72M). Absent rare data revisions, no realistic scenarios challenge this resolution, with volumes aligning to disrupted travel patterns versus pre-shutdown peaks near 3M.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions