Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for "Something" occurring in 2026, driven by bundled tail risks including US invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, or President Trump exiting office prematurely before December 31. Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian sites like Isfahan as of April 2 have heightened escalation fears around Iran, mirroring trader comments linking this market to parallel US forces-in-Iran bets. Absent these developments, odds held steadier earlier in Q1; ongoing geopolitical frictions, including Middle East tensions and great-power rivalries, sustain the edge for "No" amid uncertain diplomatic postures and no-confidence signals from official statements. Midterm elections in November add domestic political volatility potentially pressuring executive actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$443,758 交易量
$443,758 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$443,758 交易量
$443,758 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for "Something" occurring in 2026, driven by bundled tail risks including US invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, or President Trump exiting office prematurely before December 31. Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian sites like Isfahan as of April 2 have heightened escalation fears around Iran, mirroring trader comments linking this market to parallel US forces-in-Iran bets. Absent these developments, odds held steadier earlier in Q1; ongoing geopolitical frictions, including Middle East tensions and great-power rivalries, sustain the edge for "No" amid uncertain diplomatic postures and no-confidence signals from official statements. Midterm elections in November add domestic political volatility potentially pressuring executive actions.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$443,758結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for "Something" occurring in 2026, driven by bundled tail risks including US invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, or President Trump exiting office prematurely before December 31. Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian sites like Isfahan as of April 2 have heightened escalation fears around Iran, mirroring trader comments linking this market to parallel US forces-in-Iran bets. Absent these developments, odds held steadier earlier in Q1; ongoing geopolitical frictions, including Middle East tensions and great-power rivalries, sustain the edge for "No" amid uncertain diplomatic postures and no-confidence signals from official statements. Midterm elections in November add domestic political volatility potentially pressuring executive actions.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
交易量
$443,758結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 59.5% implied probability for "Something" occurring in 2026, driven by bundled tail risks including US invasion of Iran, Iranian regime collapse, China invading Taiwan, Xi Jinping's removal, or President Trump exiting office prematurely before December 31. Recent US and Israeli airstrikes on Iranian sites like Isfahan as of April 2 have heightened escalation fears around Iran, mirroring trader comments linking this market to parallel US forces-in-Iran bets. Absent these developments, odds held steadier earlier in Q1; ongoing geopolitical frictions, including Middle East tensions and great-power rivalries, sustain the edge for "No" amid uncertain diplomatic postures and no-confidence signals from official statements. Midterm elections in November add domestic political volatility potentially pressuring executive actions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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