Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices a 63% implied probability for "No," reflecting elevated geopolitical risks that could trigger resolution against a uneventful year. Recent U.S.-Iran escalations, including March strikes between Iran and Israel/U.S. forces, Iranian regime instability signals, and active markets on regime fall by April 30 or U.S. invasion, dominate sentiment amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Trump administration military operations. China's live-fire drills near Taiwan on April 1 and Gulf states' calls for action further heighten odds for invasion or leadership changes like Xi Jinping out. With no triggers met through Q1 despite Winter Olympics and Fed decisions, crowds anticipate at least one black swan—such as Trump out as president or related conflicts—before year-end, informed by skin-in-the-game bets across Iran, Taiwan, and nuclear markets.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於是
$446,535 交易量
$446,535 交易量
2026-12-31
是
$446,535 交易量
$446,535 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices a 63% implied probability for "No," reflecting elevated geopolitical risks that could trigger resolution against a uneventful year. Recent U.S.-Iran escalations, including March strikes between Iran and Israel/U.S. forces, Iranian regime instability signals, and active markets on regime fall by April 30 or U.S. invasion, dominate sentiment amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Trump administration military operations. China's live-fire drills near Taiwan on April 1 and Gulf states' calls for action further heighten odds for invasion or leadership changes like Xi Jinping out. With no triggers met through Q1 despite Winter Olympics and Fed decisions, crowds anticipate at least one black swan—such as Trump out as president or related conflicts—before year-end, informed by skin-in-the-game bets across Iran, Taiwan, and nuclear markets.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
市場開放時間： Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ET
交易量
$446,535結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdfTrader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices a 63% implied probability for "No," reflecting elevated geopolitical risks that could trigger resolution against a uneventful year. Recent U.S.-Iran escalations, including March strikes between Iran and Israel/U.S. forces, Iranian regime instability signals, and active markets on regime fall by April 30 or U.S. invasion, dominate sentiment amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Trump administration military operations. China's live-fire drills near Taiwan on April 1 and Gulf states' calls for action further heighten odds for invasion or leadership changes like Xi Jinping out. With no triggers met through Q1 despite Winter Olympics and Fed decisions, crowds anticipate at least one black swan—such as Trump out as president or related conflicts—before year-end, informed by skin-in-the-game bets across Iran, Taiwan, and nuclear markets.
This market will resolve to “No” if any of the following conditions are met between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 ET:
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
- Trump out as President
- China invades Taiwan
- Xi Jinping out
- U.S. invades Iran
- Iranian regime falls
- Bitcoin hits ‘↑ 1M’ or ‘↓ 10k’
- Jeffrey Epstein alive
- Republican Trifecta with Supermajority in the Senate
- Russia invades a NATO country
- Trump acquires Greenland
- 9.0 or above earthquake
- Major volcano eruption (VEI ≥6)
- Major meteor strike (250kt+)
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “Yes”.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/NEH+2026.pdf
交易量
$446,610結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jan 6, 2026, 5:47 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Trader consensus on Polymarket's "Nothing Ever Happens: 2026" market prices a 63% implied probability for "No," reflecting elevated geopolitical risks that could trigger resolution against a uneventful year. Recent U.S.-Iran escalations, including March strikes between Iran and Israel/U.S. forces, Iranian regime instability signals, and active markets on regime fall by April 30 or U.S. invasion, dominate sentiment amid Strait of Hormuz disruptions and Trump administration military operations. China's live-fire drills near Taiwan on April 1 and Gulf states' calls for action further heighten odds for invasion or leadership changes like Xi Jinping out. With no triggers met through Q1 despite Winter Olympics and Fed decisions, crowds anticipate at least one black swan—such as Trump out as president or related conflicts—before year-end, informed by skin-in-the-game bets across Iran, Taiwan, and nuclear markets.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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