Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, combined with strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan, have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in late July 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily crossings falling to the low-to-mid 30s or below—well under the prior monthly average near 40—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating implied probabilities for the 28-30 daily average outcome. Persistent geopolitical risk from the 2026 Iran conflict and selective avoidance of Red Sea lanes by tankers and containerships underpin the strong trader consensus. A rapid de-escalation or credible ceasefire could restore volumes, while any further attacks would likely reinforce the current depressed levels.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於28-30 100.0%
少於25 <1%
25-27 <1%
31-33 <1%
$25,436 交易量
$25,436 交易量
2026-07-31
少於25
否
25-27
否
28-30
是
31-33
否
34-36
否
37-39
否
40+
否
28-30 100.0%
少於25 <1%
25-27 <1%
31-33 <1%
$25,436 交易量
$25,436 交易量
2026-07-31
少於25
$9,235 交易量
否
25-27
$1,603 交易量
否
28-30
$3,526 交易量
是
31-33
$3,009 交易量
否
34-36
$2,073 交易量
否
37-39
$2,544 交易量
否
40+
$3,446 交易量
否
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, combined with strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan, have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in late July 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily crossings falling to the low-to-mid 30s or below—well under the prior monthly average near 40—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating implied probabilities for the 28-30 daily average outcome. Persistent geopolitical risk from the 2026 Iran conflict and selective avoidance of Red Sea lanes by tankers and containerships underpin the strong trader consensus. A rapid de-escalation or credible ceasefire could restore volumes, while any further attacks would likely reinforce the current depressed levels.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市場開放時間： Jul 13, 2026, 10:56 PM ET
交易量
$25,436結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 10:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, combined with strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan, have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in late July 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily crossings falling to the low-to-mid 30s or below—well under the prior monthly average near 40—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating implied probabilities for the 28-30 daily average outcome. Persistent geopolitical risk from the 2026 Iran conflict and selective avoidance of Red Sea lanes by tankers and containerships underpin the strong trader consensus. A rapid de-escalation or credible ceasefire could restore volumes, while any further attacks would likely reinforce the current depressed levels.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for July 31, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$25,436結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 13, 2026, 10:56 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...已提議結果: 否
無爭議
最終結果: 否
Recent Houthi announcements of a naval blockade targeting Saudi-linked vessels, combined with strikes on Aramco facilities in Yanbu and Jizan, have sharply curtailed transits through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in late July 2026. Shipping data from Kpler and Lloyd’s List Intelligence show daily crossings falling to the low-to-mid 30s or below—well under the prior monthly average near 40—prompting widespread rerouting around the Cape of Good Hope and elevating implied probabilities for the 28-30 daily average outcome. Persistent geopolitical risk from the 2026 Iran conflict and selective avoidance of Red Sea lanes by tankers and containerships underpin the strong trader consensus. A rapid de-escalation or credible ceasefire could restore volumes, while any further attacks would likely reinforce the current depressed levels.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions