下屆法國總統選舉

Name: 下屆法國總統選舉
Start: 2025-11-13T23:10:18.574Z
End: 2027-04-30T00:00:00.000Z

下屆法國總統選舉 — 討論

nicoco89 · 2025-11-13T23:10:18.574Z

關於下屆法國總統選舉的討論。交易者在 Polymarket 上分享見解和預測。

選舉·全球選舉

下屆法國總統選舉

埃杜阿爾·菲利普 25%

喬丹·巴爾德拉 24%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄 9%

瑪琳·勒龐 8%

$23,376,854 交易量

Apr 30, 2027

埃杜阿爾·菲利普

$373,426 交易量

25%

喬丹·巴爾德拉

$593,970 交易量

24%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄

$211,631 交易量

瑪琳·勒龐

$280,501 交易量

多米尼克·德維爾潘

$787,071 交易量

拉斐爾·格呂克斯曼

$438,515 交易量

弗朗索瓦·奧朗德

$533,083 交易量

莎拉·克納福

$935,220 交易量

布魯諾·赫泰約

$873,428 交易量

大衛·利斯納爾

$646,235 交易量

Gabriel Attal

$820,108 交易量

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努

$573,404 交易量

讓·卡斯泰

$439,617 交易量

熱拉爾·達爾馬寧

$301,993 交易量

埃里克·澤穆爾

$327,774 交易量

胡安·布蘭科

$246,839 交易量

弗朗索瓦·魯芬

$276,849 交易量

貝爾納·卡澤納夫

$280,002 交易量

瑪琳·通德列

$332,453 交易量

<1%

尼古拉·杜邦-艾尼昂

$1,105,427 交易量

<1%

洛朗·瓦奎茲

$281,142 交易量

<1%

法比恩·魯塞爾

$813,225 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·阿斯利諾

$1,080,979 交易量

<1%

瓦萊麗·佩克雷斯

$930,364 交易量

<1%

伊莉莎白·博爾內

$941,431 交易量

<1%

曼努埃爾·邦帕爾

$684,980 交易量

<1%

澤維耶·貝特朗

$419,205 交易量

<1%

奧利維耶·福爾

$642,492 交易量

<1%

塞格琳·羅亞爾

$823,743 交易量

<1%

克萊芙蒂娜·奧坦

$1,261,514 交易量

<1%

米歇爾·巴尼耶

$745,312 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·貝魯

$916,321 交易量

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$755,637 交易量

<1%

克蕾芙絲·蓋特

$1,028,364 交易量

<1%

卡羅爾·德爾加

$676,785 交易量

<1%

馬蒂爾德·帕諾

$999,930 交易量

<1%

埃杜阿爾·菲利普 25%

喬丹·巴爾德拉 24%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄 9%

瑪琳·勒龐 8%

$23,376,854 交易量

Apr 30, 2027

埃杜阿爾·菲利普

$373,426 交易量

25%

喬丹·巴爾德拉

$593,970 交易量

24%

讓-呂克·梅朗雄

$211,631 交易量

瑪琳·勒龐

$280,501 交易量

多米尼克·德維爾潘

$787,071 交易量

拉斐爾·格呂克斯曼

$438,515 交易量

弗朗索瓦·奧朗德

$533,083 交易量

莎拉·克納福

$935,220 交易量

布魯諾·赫泰約

$873,428 交易量

大衛·利斯納爾

$646,235 交易量

Gabriel Attal

$820,108 交易量

塞巴斯蒂安·勒科努

$573,404 交易量

讓·卡斯泰

$439,617 交易量

熱拉爾·達爾馬寧

$301,993 交易量

埃里克·澤穆爾

$327,774 交易量

胡安·布蘭科

$246,839 交易量

弗朗索瓦·魯芬

$276,849 交易量

貝爾納·卡澤納夫

$280,002 交易量

瑪琳·通德列

$332,453 交易量

<1%

尼古拉·杜邦-艾尼昂

$1,105,427 交易量

<1%

洛朗·瓦奎茲

$281,142 交易量

<1%

法比恩·魯塞爾

$813,225 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·阿斯利諾

$1,080,979 交易量

<1%

瓦萊麗·佩克雷斯

$930,364 交易量

<1%

伊莉莎白·博爾內

$941,431 交易量

<1%

曼努埃爾·邦帕爾

$684,980 交易量

<1%

澤維耶·貝特朗

$419,205 交易量

<1%

奧利維耶·福爾

$642,492 交易量

<1%

塞格琳·羅亞爾

$823,743 交易量

<1%

克萊芙蒂娜·奧坦

$1,261,514 交易量

<1%

米歇爾·巴尼耶

$745,312 交易量

<1%

弗朗索瓦·貝魯

$916,321 交易量

<1%

Yaël Braun-Pivet

$755,637 交易量

<1%

克蕾芙絲·蓋特

$1,028,364 交易量

<1%

卡羅爾·德爾加

$676,785 交易量

<1%

馬蒂爾德·帕諾

$999,930 交易量

<1%

Recent municipal elections on March 15 and 22 boosted Édouard Philippe's standing after his strong re-election as Le Havre mayor, positioning the former prime minister and Horizons leader as the top trader consensus pick at 25% implied probability to win the 2027 presidential race, narrowly ahead of National Rally's Jordan Bardella at 23.5%. While latest Elabe polls show Bardella leading first-round voting intentions at 38% versus Philippe's 25.5%, second-round simulations favor Philippe in a potential runoff, reflecting RN's urban setbacks and mainstream alliances blocking far-right gains. Left fragmentation caps Jean-Luc Mélenchon at 8.5%, keeping the race tight; Les Républicains' upcoming primary vote and economic pressures could tip the balance ahead of April 2027 balloting.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 30, 2026, 8:46 AM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"下屆法國總統選舉" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 36 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "埃杜阿爾·菲利普" at 25%, followed by "喬丹·巴爾德拉" at 24%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 25¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "下屆法國總統選舉" has generated $23.4 million in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 13, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "下屆法國總統選舉," browse the 36 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "下屆法國總統選舉" is "埃杜阿爾·菲利普" at 25%, meaning the market assigns a 25% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "喬丹·巴爾德拉" at 24%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "下屆法國總統選舉" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "下屆法國總統選舉." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. With $23.4 million traded on “下屆法國總統選舉,” these prices aggregate the collective knowledge and conviction of thousands of participants — often outperforming polls, expert forecasts, and traditional surveys. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "下屆法國總統選舉," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 25¢ for "埃杜阿爾·菲利普" in the "下屆法國總統選舉" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 25% chance that "埃杜阿爾·菲利普" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 25¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 75¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "下屆法國總統選舉" market is a long-term prediction with a resolution date of Apr 30, 2027 — that's roughly over 1 year away. Long-term markets on Polymarket often see their odds shift significantly as events unfold, making them useful for tracking evolving sentiment. You can trade at any time or bookmark this page to follow the odds over the months and years ahead.

The "下屆法國總統選舉" market has an active community of 362 comments where traders share their analysis, debate outcomes, and discuss breaking developments. Scroll down to the comments section below to read what other participants think. You can also filter by "Top Holders" to see what the market's biggest traders are positioned on, or check the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "下屆法國總統選舉." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

下屆法國總統選舉

下屆法國總統選舉

規則

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規則

盤口背景

評論 (362)

頂級持倉者

持倉

動態

Frequently Asked Questions

What is the "下屆法國總統選舉" prediction market?

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What does a price of 25¢ for "埃杜阿爾·菲利普" mean?

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