Trader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual headline inflation clusters tightly around 4-5%, with market-implied odds favoring 4.50-4.99% (28%) amid the February print at 4.02%—up from January's 3.79% and accelerating to 4.63% in early March on surging non-core components like food prices. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 reflected stable core inflation at ~4.5%, yet signaled caution on the deteriorating outlook versus its 3% target. Closely contested probabilities hinge on upcoming full March CPI (due ~April 9), persistent commodity volatility, peso dynamics, and Banxico's May policy path, where moderation could lift lower bins or sustained pressures push toward 5%+. BBVA forecasts end-2026 at 3.9%, but traders price higher near-term risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於4.50%到4.99% 27%
4.00%至4.49% 26%
3.50%至3.99% 23%
5.00%至5.49% 15.1%
$33,954 交易量
$33,954 交易量
2027-01-08
低於2.50%
5%
2.50%至2.99%
3%
3.00% 至 3.49%
12%
3.50%至3.99%
23%
4.00%至4.49%
26%
4.50%到4.99%
27%
5.00%至5.49%
26%
5.50% 以上
8%
4.50%到4.99% 27%
4.00%至4.49% 26%
3.50%至3.99% 23%
5.00%至5.49% 15.1%
$33,954 交易量
$33,954 交易量
2027-01-08
低於2.50%
$0 交易量
5%
2.50%至2.99%
$0 交易量
3%
3.00% 至 3.49%
$25,641 交易量
12%
3.50%至3.99%
$250 交易量
23%
4.00%至4.49%
$346 交易量
26%
4.50%到4.99%
$3,000 交易量
27%
5.00%至5.49%
$401 交易量
26%
5.50% 以上
$4,316 交易量
8%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual headline inflation clusters tightly around 4-5%, with market-implied odds favoring 4.50-4.99% (28%) amid the February print at 4.02%—up from January's 3.79% and accelerating to 4.63% in early March on surging non-core components like food prices. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 reflected stable core inflation at ~4.5%, yet signaled caution on the deteriorating outlook versus its 3% target. Closely contested probabilities hinge on upcoming full March CPI (due ~April 9), persistent commodity volatility, peso dynamics, and Banxico's May policy path, where moderation could lift lower bins or sustained pressures push toward 5%+. BBVA forecasts end-2026 at 3.9%, but traders price higher near-term risks.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
市場開放時間： Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
交易量
$33,954結束日期
2027-01-08市場開放時間
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioTrader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual headline inflation clusters tightly around 4-5%, with market-implied odds favoring 4.50-4.99% (28%) amid the February print at 4.02%—up from January's 3.79% and accelerating to 4.63% in early March on surging non-core components like food prices. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 reflected stable core inflation at ~4.5%, yet signaled caution on the deteriorating outlook versus its 3% target. Closely contested probabilities hinge on upcoming full March CPI (due ~April 9), persistent commodity volatility, peso dynamics, and Banxico's May policy path, where moderation could lift lower bins or sustained pressures push toward 5%+. BBVA forecasts end-2026 at 3.9%, but traders price higher near-term risks.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
交易量
$33,954結束日期
2027-01-08市場開放時間
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader sentiment on Mexico's 2026 annual headline inflation clusters tightly around 4-5%, with market-implied odds favoring 4.50-4.99% (28%) amid the February print at 4.02%—up from January's 3.79% and accelerating to 4.63% in early March on surging non-core components like food prices. Banxico's surprise 25 basis point rate cut to 6.75% on March 26 reflected stable core inflation at ~4.5%, yet signaled caution on the deteriorating outlook versus its 3% target. Closely contested probabilities hinge on upcoming full March CPI (due ~April 9), persistent commodity volatility, peso dynamics, and Banxico's May policy path, where moderation could lift lower bins or sustained pressures push toward 5%+. BBVA forecasts end-2026 at 3.9%, but traders price higher near-term risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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