Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, Iran has executed multiple verified attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, including a March 29 missile strike on a U.S.-linked vessel near Oman, suicide boat rammings on oil tankers near Basra, and an April 1 hit on a Qatar-leased tanker off Dubai. These asymmetric operations by the IRGC—using drones, missiles, and fast-attack craft—have confirmed over 21 merchant ship incidents by mid-March, slashing transit volumes by over 90% and spiking insurance rates. U.S. naval escorts and counterstrikes on IRGC bases aim to degrade this capability, while Iran urges Houthi allies to resume Red Sea disruptions; traders monitor for further escalations or diplomatic off-ramps ahead of potential Gulf Cooperation Council UN interventions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$120,680 交易量
2026-03-31
March 31
4%
$120,680 交易量
March 31
$7,592 交易量
4%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, Iran has executed multiple verified attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, including a March 29 missile strike on a U.S.-linked vessel near Oman, suicide boat rammings on oil tankers near Basra, and an April 1 hit on a Qatar-leased tanker off Dubai. These asymmetric operations by the IRGC—using drones, missiles, and fast-attack craft—have confirmed over 21 merchant ship incidents by mid-March, slashing transit volumes by over 90% and spiking insurance rates. U.S. naval escorts and counterstrikes on IRGC bases aim to degrade this capability, while Iran urges Houthi allies to resume Red Sea disruptions; traders monitor for further escalations or diplomatic off-ramps ahead of potential Gulf Cooperation Council UN interventions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$120,680結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, Iran has executed multiple verified attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, including a March 29 missile strike on a U.S.-linked vessel near Oman, suicide boat rammings on oil tankers near Basra, and an April 1 hit on a Qatar-leased tanker off Dubai. These asymmetric operations by the IRGC—using drones, missiles, and fast-attack craft—have confirmed over 21 merchant ship incidents by mid-March, slashing transit volumes by over 90% and spiking insurance rates. U.S. naval escorts and counterstrikes on IRGC bases aim to degrade this capability, while Iran urges Houthi allies to resume Red Sea disruptions; traders monitor for further escalations or diplomatic off-ramps ahead of potential Gulf Cooperation Council UN interventions.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$120,680結束日期
2026-03-31市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the ongoing 2026 Iran war triggered by U.S.-Israeli strikes on February 28, Iran has executed multiple verified attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, including a March 29 missile strike on a U.S.-linked vessel near Oman, suicide boat rammings on oil tankers near Basra, and an April 1 hit on a Qatar-leased tanker off Dubai. These asymmetric operations by the IRGC—using drones, missiles, and fast-attack craft—have confirmed over 21 merchant ship incidents by mid-March, slashing transit volumes by over 90% and spiking insurance rates. U.S. naval escorts and counterstrikes on IRGC bases aim to degrade this capability, while Iran urges Houthi allies to resume Red Sea disruptions; traders monitor for further escalations or diplomatic off-ramps ahead of potential Gulf Cooperation Council UN interventions.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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