Amid heightened US-Israel-Iran conflict since early March 2026, trader consensus prices low odds for Iran successfully targeting shipping on specific dates, reflecting degraded Iranian naval and coastal capabilities after intensive airstrikes destroyed dozens of IRGC vessels, missile boats, and sites along the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran employed asymmetric tactics like suicide speedboats, drones, and missiles to strike tankers near Basra and in the Gulf earlier this month, disrupting transits and surging oil prices over 40%, but no verified hits reported in the past week amid coalition patrols and insurance halts. Upcoming US warship deployments and potential escorted convoys could further limit Iranian opportunities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$95,206 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 27
1%
March 28
2%
March 29
3%
March 30
4%
March 31
5%
$95,206 交易量
March 27
$20,957 交易量
1%
March 28
$7,300 交易量
2%
March 29
$8,140 交易量
3%
March 30
$7,974 交易量
4%
March 31
$1,037 交易量
5%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid heightened US-Israel-Iran conflict since early March 2026, trader consensus prices low odds for Iran successfully targeting shipping on specific dates, reflecting degraded Iranian naval and coastal capabilities after intensive airstrikes destroyed dozens of IRGC vessels, missile boats, and sites along the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran employed asymmetric tactics like suicide speedboats, drones, and missiles to strike tankers near Basra and in the Gulf earlier this month, disrupting transits and surging oil prices over 40%, but no verified hits reported in the past week amid coalition patrols and insurance halts. Upcoming US warship deployments and potential escorted convoys could further limit Iranian opportunities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$95,206結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid heightened US-Israel-Iran conflict since early March 2026, trader consensus prices low odds for Iran successfully targeting shipping on specific dates, reflecting degraded Iranian naval and coastal capabilities after intensive airstrikes destroyed dozens of IRGC vessels, missile boats, and sites along the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran employed asymmetric tactics like suicide speedboats, drones, and missiles to strike tankers near Basra and in the Gulf earlier this month, disrupting transits and surging oil prices over 40%, but no verified hits reported in the past week amid coalition patrols and insurance halts. Upcoming US warship deployments and potential escorted convoys could further limit Iranian opportunities.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$95,206結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid heightened US-Israel-Iran conflict since early March 2026, trader consensus prices low odds for Iran successfully targeting shipping on specific dates, reflecting degraded Iranian naval and coastal capabilities after intensive airstrikes destroyed dozens of IRGC vessels, missile boats, and sites along the Strait of Hormuz. Tehran employed asymmetric tactics like suicide speedboats, drones, and missiles to strike tankers near Basra and in the Gulf earlier this month, disrupting transits and surging oil prices over 40%, but no verified hits reported in the past week amid coalition patrols and insurance halts. Upcoming US warship deployments and potential escorted convoys could further limit Iranian opportunities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions