Amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military strikes degrading Iran's anti-ship missiles, drones, and naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz, trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for direct Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures of commercial shipping. The IRGC has declared the strait closed to unauthorized vessels, issuing warnings and claiming isolated hits like a March 27 strike on a Thai container ship, but credible reporting has not confirmed qualifying incidents—direct impacts excluding proxies like Houthis or intercepted attacks—on recent dates per market criteria. President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait by 10 days, signaling potential de-escalation, while Houthi threats loom separately; watch the April 7 deadline for escalation risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$86,606 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 25
1%
March 26
1%
March 27
5%
March 28
2%
March 29
5%
March 30
7%
March 31
2%
$86,606 交易量
March 25
$30,543 交易量
1%
March 26
$5,945 交易量
1%
March 27
$19,153 交易量
5%
March 28
$6,836 交易量
2%
March 29
$7,563 交易量
5%
March 30
$7,953 交易量
7%
March 31
$689 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military strikes degrading Iran's anti-ship missiles, drones, and naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz, trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for direct Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures of commercial shipping. The IRGC has declared the strait closed to unauthorized vessels, issuing warnings and claiming isolated hits like a March 27 strike on a Thai container ship, but credible reporting has not confirmed qualifying incidents—direct impacts excluding proxies like Houthis or intercepted attacks—on recent dates per market criteria. President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait by 10 days, signaling potential de-escalation, while Houthi threats loom separately; watch the April 7 deadline for escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$86,606結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military strikes degrading Iran's anti-ship missiles, drones, and naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz, trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for direct Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures of commercial shipping. The IRGC has declared the strait closed to unauthorized vessels, issuing warnings and claiming isolated hits like a March 27 strike on a Thai container ship, but credible reporting has not confirmed qualifying incidents—direct impacts excluding proxies like Houthis or intercepted attacks—on recent dates per market criteria. President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait by 10 days, signaling potential de-escalation, while Houthi threats loom separately; watch the April 7 deadline for escalation risks.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$86,606結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid ongoing U.S.-Israeli military strikes degrading Iran's anti-ship missiles, drones, and naval assets in the Strait of Hormuz, trader consensus reflects low near-term probabilities for direct Iranian kinetic strikes or seizures of commercial shipping. The IRGC has declared the strait closed to unauthorized vessels, issuing warnings and claiming isolated hits like a March 27 strike on a Thai container ship, but credible reporting has not confirmed qualifying incidents—direct impacts excluding proxies like Houthis or intercepted attacks—on recent dates per market criteria. President Trump extended his deadline for Iran to reopen the strait by 10 days, signaling potential de-escalation, while Houthi threats loom separately; watch the April 7 deadline for escalation risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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