Amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict, recent US-Israeli airstrikes on IRGC naval assets, including anti-ship missiles, drones, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz since mid-March, have degraded Iran's strike capacity and slowed attacks on commercial shipping after 21 confirmed incidents by March 12. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate IRGC strikes on two civilian vessels March 11 as apparent war crimes, with the latest verified hit—a Thai container ship—on March 27 before Tehran opened tolled passages to regulate transits, enabling limited flows like two LPG tankers March 28. Traders price low near-term probabilities due to robust US naval deterrence, eyeing early April for potential retaliation amid Houthi Red Sea threats excluding proxies.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於$89,914 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
March 25
<1%
March 26
1%
March 27
2%
March 28
2%
March 29
4%
March 30
7%
March 31
2%
$89,914 交易量
March 25
$32,754 交易量
<1%
March 26
$5,945 交易量
1%
March 27
$19,701 交易量
2%
March 28
$7,249 交易量
2%
March 29
$7,800 交易量
4%
March 30
$7,953 交易量
7%
March 31
$689 交易量
2%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict, recent US-Israeli airstrikes on IRGC naval assets, including anti-ship missiles, drones, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz since mid-March, have degraded Iran's strike capacity and slowed attacks on commercial shipping after 21 confirmed incidents by March 12. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate IRGC strikes on two civilian vessels March 11 as apparent war crimes, with the latest verified hit—a Thai container ship—on March 27 before Tehran opened tolled passages to regulate transits, enabling limited flows like two LPG tankers March 28. Traders price low near-term probabilities due to robust US naval deterrence, eyeing early April for potential retaliation amid Houthi Red Sea threats excluding proxies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$89,914結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.Amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict, recent US-Israeli airstrikes on IRGC naval assets, including anti-ship missiles, drones, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz since mid-March, have degraded Iran's strike capacity and slowed attacks on commercial shipping after 21 confirmed incidents by March 12. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate IRGC strikes on two civilian vessels March 11 as apparent war crimes, with the latest verified hit—a Thai container ship—on March 27 before Tehran opened tolled passages to regulate transits, enabling limited flows like two LPG tankers March 28. Traders price low near-term probabilities due to robust US naval deterrence, eyeing early April for potential retaliation amid Houthi Red Sea threats excluding proxies.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike on or otherwise seize control of a commercial ship on the specified date (IRST UTC +3:30). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
If the date/time of a qualifying incident cannot be confirmed by a consensus of credible reporting by the end of the second calendar date after the specified date, it will resolve to "No" regardless of whether a strike is later confirmed to have taken place.
交易量
$89,914結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Amid the US-Israel-Iran conflict, recent US-Israeli airstrikes on IRGC naval assets, including anti-ship missiles, drones, and mines in the Strait of Hormuz since mid-March, have degraded Iran's strike capacity and slowed attacks on commercial shipping after 21 confirmed incidents by March 12. Human Rights Watch documented deliberate IRGC strikes on two civilian vessels March 11 as apparent war crimes, with the latest verified hit—a Thai container ship—on March 27 before Tehran opened tolled passages to regulate transits, enabling limited flows like two LPG tankers March 28. Traders price low near-term probabilities due to robust US naval deterrence, eyeing early April for potential retaliation amid Houthi Red Sea threats excluding proxies.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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