愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者

Name: 愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者
Start: 2025-11-13T19:34:48.014Z
End: 2026-06-02T00:00:00.000Z

選舉·主要

愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者

艾希莉·欣森 96.1%

約翰·伯曼 1.9%

吉姆·卡林 1.5%

約書亞·史密斯 <1%

NEW

Jun 2, 2026

艾希莉·欣森

$7,917 交易量

96%

約翰·伯曼

$486 交易量

吉姆·卡林

$405 交易量

約書亞·史密斯

$0 交易量

艾希莉·欣森 96.1%

約翰·伯曼 1.9%

吉姆·卡林 1.5%

約書亞·史密斯 <1%

NEW

Jun 2, 2026

艾希莉·欣森

$7,917 交易量

96%

約翰·伯曼

$486 交易量

吉姆·卡林

$405 交易量

約書亞·史密斯

$0 交易量

This market will resolve according to the winner of the Republican Primary for United States Senator from Iowa. If no 2026 Iowa Republican Senate Primary takes place, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be the first announcement of the results from the Iowa Republican party, however an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.

Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors Rep. Ashley Hinson at 96% implied probability to win the Iowa Republican Senate primary, reflecting her incumbency edge in a competitive district, robust fundraising exceeding $2 million, and consistent double-digit polling leads over challengers like state Sen. Jim Carlin. Recent developments include Hinson's Trump endorsement and strong county-level organization, solidifying her position amid low challenger momentum. Realistic challenges could arise from an unexpected high-profile entrant, a late-breaking scandal, or shifts in voter turnout during the June primary, though current evidence points to minimal disruption given the crowded field's fragmentation.

基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於 Mar 25, 2026, 11:59 AM UTC

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "艾希莉·欣森" at 96%, followed by "約翰·伯曼" at 2%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 96¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Nov 13, 2025. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者" is "艾希莉·欣森" at 96%, meaning the market assigns a 96% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "約翰·伯曼" at 2%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.

Yes. You don't need to trade to stay informed. This page serves as a live tracker for "愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者." The outcome probabilities update in real-time as new trades come in. You can bookmark this page and check the comments section to see what other traders are saying. You can also use the time-range filters on the chart to see how the odds have shifted over time. It's a free, real-time window into what the market expects to happen.

Polymarket odds are set by real traders putting real money behind their beliefs, which tends to surface accurate predictions. “愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者” is still building its trading base, so the odds will become increasingly reliable as more participants enter the market. Prediction markets like Polymarket have a strong track record of accuracy, especially as events approach their resolution date. For example, Polymarket has a one month accuracy score of 94%. For the latest stats on Polymarket’s prediction accuracy, visit the accuracy page on Polymarket.

To place your first trade on "愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者," sign up for a free Polymarket account and fund it using crypto, a credit or debit card, or a bank transfer. Once your account is funded, return to this page, select the outcome you want to trade, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If you're new to prediction markets, click the "How it works" link at the top of any Polymarket page for a quick step-by-step walkthrough of how trading works.

On Polymarket, the price of each outcome represents the market's implied probability. A price of 96¢ for "艾希莉·欣森" in the "愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者" market means traders collectively believe there is roughly a 96% chance that "艾希莉·欣森" will be the correct result. If you buy "Yes" shares at 96¢ and the outcome is correct, you receive $1.00 per share — a profit of 4¢ per share. If incorrect, those shares are worth $0.

The "愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者" market is scheduled to resolve on or around Jun 2, 2026. This means trading will remain open and the odds will continue to shift as new information emerges until that date. The exact resolution timing depends on when the official result becomes available, as outlined in the "Rules" section on this page.

The "愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者" market was recently created. Be one of the first to share your analysis by posting a comment below, or check back as the market grows to read what other traders think. You can also view the "Activity" tab for a real-time feed of recent trades.

Polymarket is the world's largest prediction market, where you can stay informed and profit from your knowledge of real-world events. Traders buy and sell shares on outcomes for topics ranging from politics and elections to crypto, finance, sports, tech, and culture, including markets like "愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者." Prices reflect real-time, crowd-sourced probabilities backed by financial conviction, often providing faster and more accurate signals than polls, pundits, or traditional surveys.

愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者

愛荷華州共和黨參議院初選獲勝者

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