Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a SpaceX IPO in June at 34.5% implied probability, leading a dispersed field reflecting deep uncertainty over Elon Musk's opaque timeline. Primary drivers include Starship's Flight 4 success in late May 2024, fueling speculation for near-term liquidity amid $210 billion private valuation and Starlink's $4.6 billion annual revenue run-rate. Musk's repeated insistence on delaying until "predictable revenue" caps "No IPO before 2027" at 12.5%, while July-September odds (12.4%-10.7%) hinge on upcoming Flight 5 outcomes and FAA approvals. Later months fade on historical precedent of Musk defying IPO pressure, prioritizing Mars ambitions over public markets.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於六月 34%
7 月 12.4%
11 月 9.4%
9 月 8.3%
$64,287 交易量
$64,287 交易量
三月
1%
4 月
9%
五月
6%
六月
34%
7 月
12%
8 月
8%
9 月
11%
10 月
4%
11 月
9%
12 月
1%
2027 年前不會有 IPO
12%
六月 34%
7 月 12.4%
11 月 9.4%
9 月 8.3%
$64,287 交易量
$64,287 交易量
三月
1%
4 月
9%
五月
6%
六月
34%
7 月
12%
8 月
8%
9 月
11%
10 月
4%
11 月
9%
12 月
1%
2027 年前不會有 IPO
12%
If no IPO occurs by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "No IPO before 2027".
Announcements, filings, or scheduling of an IPO will not suffice; this market will resolve after public trading has begun.
Resolution will be based on information from the primary exchange.
市場開放時間: Feb 9, 2026, 3:01 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a SpaceX IPO in June at 34.5% implied probability, leading a dispersed field reflecting deep uncertainty over Elon Musk's opaque timeline. Primary drivers include Starship's Flight 4 success in late May 2024, fueling speculation for near-term liquidity amid $210 billion private valuation and Starlink's $4.6 billion annual revenue run-rate. Musk's repeated insistence on delaying until "predictable revenue" caps "No IPO before 2027" at 12.5%, while July-September odds (12.4%-10.7%) hinge on upcoming Flight 5 outcomes and FAA approvals. Later months fade on historical precedent of Musk defying IPO pressure, prioritizing Mars ambitions over public markets.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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