Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo's substantial polling leads over Democratic challenger Gary Smith—typically 55% to 28% in recent surveys—drive the 90.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory in Idaho's U.S. Senate race. The state's deep Republican lean (R+18 partisan voter index), overwhelming GOP registration edge, and history of uninterrupted Republican Senate control since 1998 solidify this positioning, unchanged by any major developments in the past 30 days following Crapo's unchallenged primary win. With the November 5 general election approaching, an upset would demand unprecedented shifts like a late scandal, Crapo's health issues, or anomalous Democratic turnout in this non-competitive race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
91%
民主黨
8%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
$4,686 交易量
91%
民主黨
$0 交易量
8%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo's substantial polling leads over Democratic challenger Gary Smith—typically 55% to 28% in recent surveys—drive the 90.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory in Idaho's U.S. Senate race. The state's deep Republican lean (R+18 partisan voter index), overwhelming GOP registration edge, and history of uninterrupted Republican Senate control since 1998 solidify this positioning, unchanged by any major developments in the past 30 days following Crapo's unchallenged primary win. With the November 5 general election approaching, an upset would demand unprecedented shifts like a late scandal, Crapo's health issues, or anomalous Democratic turnout in this non-competitive race.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$4,686結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo's substantial polling leads over Democratic challenger Gary Smith—typically 55% to 28% in recent surveys—drive the 90.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory in Idaho's U.S. Senate race. The state's deep Republican lean (R+18 partisan voter index), overwhelming GOP registration edge, and history of uninterrupted Republican Senate control since 1998 solidify this positioning, unchanged by any major developments in the past 30 days following Crapo's unchallenged primary win. With the November 5 general election approaching, an upset would demand unprecedented shifts like a late scandal, Crapo's health issues, or anomalous Democratic turnout in this non-competitive race.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Idaho U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$4,686結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Senator Mike Crapo's substantial polling leads over Democratic challenger Gary Smith—typically 55% to 28% in recent surveys—drive the 90.5% trader consensus for a Republican victory in Idaho's U.S. Senate race. The state's deep Republican lean (R+18 partisan voter index), overwhelming GOP registration edge, and history of uninterrupted Republican Senate control since 1998 solidify this positioning, unchanged by any major developments in the past 30 days following Crapo's unchallenged primary win. With the November 5 general election approaching, an upset would demand unprecedented shifts like a late scandal, Crapo's health issues, or anomalous Democratic turnout in this non-competitive race.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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