Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by March 31 (95%), reflecting the Houthis' limited track record amid robust US-led coalition defenses in the Red Sea. Despite over 100 claimed attacks since November 2023, verifiable successful strikes remain under five, with high interception rates by US, UK, and allied naval forces neutralizing most drones and missiles. Recent US airstrikes in mid-March further degraded Houthi launch capabilities, coinciding with a lull in activity over the past week—no major incidents reported in the last 48 hours. Scenarios that could shift odds include a surge in Houthi salvos overwhelming defenses, direct Iranian naval action, or breakdowns in coalition patrols, though diplomatic de-escalation signals temper such risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於<5 95%
5–7 3.3%
8–10 1.2%
14–16 1.2%
$49,858 交易量
$49,858 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
<5
95%
5–7
3%
8–10
1%
11–13
1%
14–16
1%
17–19
<1%
20+
<1%
<5 95%
5–7 3.3%
8–10 1.2%
14–16 1.2%
$49,858 交易量
$49,858 交易量
Mar 31, 2026
<5
$21,893 交易量
95%
5–7
$5,685 交易量
3%
8–10
$3,612 交易量
1%
11–13
$2,862 交易量
1%
14–16
$4,993 交易量
1%
17–19
$2,652 交易量
<1%
20+
$8,160 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by March 31 (95%), reflecting the Houthis' limited track record amid robust US-led coalition defenses in the Red Sea. Despite over 100 claimed attacks since November 2023, verifiable successful strikes remain under five, with high interception rates by US, UK, and allied naval forces neutralizing most drones and missiles. Recent US airstrikes in mid-March further degraded Houthi launch capabilities, coinciding with a lull in activity over the past week—no major incidents reported in the last 48 hours. Scenarios that could shift odds include a surge in Houthi salvos overwhelming defenses, direct Iranian naval action, or breakdowns in coalition patrols, though diplomatic de-escalation signals temper such risks.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ET
交易量
$49,858結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by March 31 (95%), reflecting the Houthis' limited track record amid robust US-led coalition defenses in the Red Sea. Despite over 100 claimed attacks since November 2023, verifiable successful strikes remain under five, with high interception rates by US, UK, and allied naval forces neutralizing most drones and missiles. Recent US airstrikes in mid-March further degraded Houthi launch capabilities, coinciding with a lull in activity over the past week—no major incidents reported in the last 48 hours. Scenarios that could shift odds include a surge in Houthi salvos overwhelming defenses, direct Iranian naval action, or breakdowns in coalition patrols, though diplomatic de-escalation signals temper such risks.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and March 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$49,858結束日期
Mar 31, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 17, 2026, 5:41 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus overwhelmingly favors fewer than five ships successfully targeted by Iran or its proxies by March 31 (95%), reflecting the Houthis' limited track record amid robust US-led coalition defenses in the Red Sea. Despite over 100 claimed attacks since November 2023, verifiable successful strikes remain under five, with high interception rates by US, UK, and allied naval forces neutralizing most drones and missiles. Recent US airstrikes in mid-March further degraded Houthi launch capabilities, coinciding with a lull in activity over the past week—no major incidents reported in the last 48 hours. Scenarios that could shift odds include a surge in Houthi salvos overwhelming defenses, direct Iranian naval action, or breakdowns in coalition patrols, though diplomatic de-escalation signals temper such risks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions