Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (51.5%), reflecting effective multinational naval intercepts—led by the US, UK, and allies—of Iran-backed Houthi drones and missiles in the Red Sea. Recent US Central Command reports detail over 170 intercepts since mid-January, with the latest Houthi barrages on April 25 thwarted amid ongoing airstrikes degrading launch sites. No confirmed successful strikes on commercial vessels in the past week have occurred, despite Houthi claims, lowering probabilities for higher brackets like 10+ (10.5%). Escalation risks persist ahead of the deadline, but bolstered Operation Prosperity Guardian patrols signal continued low success rates for attackers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於<2 53%
2–3 13%
8–9 12%
10+ 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
53%
2–3
13%
4–5
7%
6–7
9%
8–9
12%
10+
10%
<2 53%
2–3 13%
8–9 12%
10+ 10%
NEW
NEW
Apr 30, 2026
<2
$348 交易量
53%
2–3
$0 交易量
13%
4–5
$0 交易量
7%
6–7
$0 交易量
9%
8–9
$0 交易量
12%
10+
$90 交易量
10%
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (51.5%), reflecting effective multinational naval intercepts—led by the US, UK, and allies—of Iran-backed Houthi drones and missiles in the Red Sea. Recent US Central Command reports detail over 170 intercepts since mid-January, with the latest Houthi barrages on April 25 thwarted amid ongoing airstrikes degrading launch sites. No confirmed successful strikes on commercial vessels in the past week have occurred, despite Houthi claims, lowering probabilities for higher brackets like 10+ (10.5%). Escalation risks persist ahead of the deadline, but bolstered Operation Prosperity Guardian patrols signal continued low success rates for attackers.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
市場開放時間： Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ET
交易量
$438結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (51.5%), reflecting effective multinational naval intercepts—led by the US, UK, and allies—of Iran-backed Houthi drones and missiles in the Red Sea. Recent US Central Command reports detail over 170 intercepts since mid-January, with the latest Houthi barrages on April 25 thwarted amid ongoing airstrikes degrading launch sites. No confirmed successful strikes on commercial vessels in the past week have occurred, despite Houthi claims, lowering probabilities for higher brackets like 10+ (10.5%). Escalation risks persist ahead of the deadline, but bolstered Operation Prosperity Guardian patrols signal continued low success rates for attackers.
This market will resolve based on the number of distinct commercial vessels on which Iranian forces conduct a kinetic strike or otherwise seize control between market creation and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Attacks on military vessels will not be considered.
Only military actions by Iranian forces explicitly claimed by the Islamic Republic of Iran, or confirmed to have originated from Iranian territory, will count toward the resolution of this market. Attacks by proxy forces (i.e. Hezbollah, Houthis, etc.) will not count toward the resolution of this market.
Missile/drone strikes targeting a ship that are intercepted or otherwise do not directly impact the vessel will not be considered, regardless of damage through debris.
Qualifying incidents include, but are not limited to, drone and missile strikes, aerial bombings, and kinetic actions carried out by Iranian operatives in person, such as seizing a ship by force.
The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$438結束日期
Apr 30, 2026市場開放時間
Mar 24, 2026, 1:08 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors fewer than two ships successfully targeted by Iran by April 30 (51.5%), reflecting effective multinational naval intercepts—led by the US, UK, and allies—of Iran-backed Houthi drones and missiles in the Red Sea. Recent US Central Command reports detail over 170 intercepts since mid-January, with the latest Houthi barrages on April 25 thwarted amid ongoing airstrikes degrading launch sites. No confirmed successful strikes on commercial vessels in the past week have occurred, despite Houthi claims, lowering probabilities for higher brackets like 10+ (10.5%). Escalation risks persist ahead of the deadline, but bolstered Operation Prosperity Guardian patrols signal continued low success rates for attackers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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