Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 23, with 34% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 19-21°C amid a mild southerly flow. Recent model runs show slight cooling from earlier 22°C projections due to increased cloud cover and a weakening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, per Israel Meteorological Service updates. Historical March highs average 20°C, but uncertainty persists from divergent 500mb geopotential height patterns—warmer outcomes (22°C+) hinge on persistent sunshine, while cooler ones (18°C-) depend on northerly winds or overnight rain residuals. Key resolution hinges on official hourly observations from Tel Aviv's Bet Dagan station.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 23?
20°C 34%
21°C 24%
19°C 18%
18°C 14%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
14%
19°C
18%
20°C
34%
21°C
24%
22°C
9%
23°C
4%
24°C or higher
3%
20°C 34%
21°C 24%
19°C 18%
18°C 14%
14°C or below
1%
15°C
2%
16°C
3%
17°C
8%
18°C
14%
19°C
18%
20°C
34%
21°C
24%
22°C
9%
23°C
4%
24°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LLBG
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 20°C in Tel Aviv on March 23, with 34% implied probability, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts clustering around 19-21°C amid a mild southerly flow. Recent model runs show slight cooling from earlier 22°C projections due to increased cloud cover and a weakening high-pressure ridge over the eastern Mediterranean, per Israel Meteorological Service updates. Historical March highs average 20°C, but uncertainty persists from divergent 500mb geopotential height patterns—warmer outcomes (22°C+) hinge on persistent sunshine, while cooler ones (18°C-) depend on northerly winds or overnight rain residuals. Key resolution hinges on official hourly observations from Tel Aviv's Bet Dagan station.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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