Trader consensus heavily favors a maximum temperature of 31°C or below in Lucknow on March 23 (74% implied probability), with 32°C next at 21.5%, driven by ensemble weather model forecasts from IMD and global sources like ECMWF converging on highs of 31-32°C amid moderating northerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent observations show March 22 peaking near 34°C, but dynamical models indicate a dip due to a passing western disturbance suppressing heat advection from arid Rajasthan. Seasonal climatology supports this, with Lucknow's March normals around 31°C; however, urban heat island effects and model spread introduce modest uncertainty, keeping slim odds on 33°C+. Upcoming hourly updates from IMD could refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
31°C or below 81%
32°C 22%
33°C 1.6%
35°C <1%
$130,780 交易量
$130,780 交易量
31°C or below
75%
32°C
22%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
31°C or below 81%
32°C 22%
33°C 1.6%
35°C <1%
$130,780 交易量
$130,780 交易量
31°C or below
75%
32°C
22%
33°C
2%
34°C
<1%
35°C
1%
36°C
1%
37°C
<1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C
<1%
41°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors a maximum temperature of 31°C or below in Lucknow on March 23 (74% implied probability), with 32°C next at 21.5%, driven by ensemble weather model forecasts from IMD and global sources like ECMWF converging on highs of 31-32°C amid moderating northerly winds and partial cloud cover. Recent observations show March 22 peaking near 34°C, but dynamical models indicate a dip due to a passing western disturbance suppressing heat advection from arid Rajasthan. Seasonal climatology supports this, with Lucknow's March normals around 31°C; however, urban heat island effects and model spread introduce modest uncertainty, keeping slim odds on 33°C+. Upcoming hourly updates from IMD could refine these market-implied odds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions