Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 15°C (30%), 14°C (26.5%), and 16°C (21%) for Shanghai's March 21 high, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 14.5-15.5°C amid model spread of just 1-2°C. This reflects Shanghai's transitional spring climate, where post-winter cold air masses from Siberia yield to southerly flows, moderated by urban heat island effects boosting nighttime mins but capping peaks under partial cloudiness. Historical March 21 highs average 13°C, but recent warming trends and low wind shear differentiate outcomes—16°C hinges on clearer skies in afternoon model runs, while 14°C accounts for lingering frontal boundaries per China Meteorological Administration updates. Traders eye today's 12Z forecast refresh for resolution cues.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3月21日上海最高溫度?
3月21日上海最高溫度?
15°C 30%
14°C 27%
16°C 21%
17°C 13%
$27,660 交易量
$27,660 交易量
10°C或以下
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
5%
14°C
27%
15°C
30%
16°C
21%
17°C
13%
18°C
4%
19°C
2%
20°C或以上
1%
15°C 30%
14°C 27%
16°C 21%
17°C 13%
$27,660 交易量
$27,660 交易量
10°C或以下
<1%
11°C
1%
12°C
4%
13°C
5%
14°C
27%
15°C
30%
16°C
21%
17°C
13%
18°C
4%
19°C
2%
20°C或以上
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 17, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment clusters tightly around 15°C (30%), 14°C (26.5%), and 16°C (21%) for Shanghai's March 21 high, driven by the latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts averaging 14.5-15.5°C amid model spread of just 1-2°C. This reflects Shanghai's transitional spring climate, where post-winter cold air masses from Siberia yield to southerly flows, moderated by urban heat island effects boosting nighttime mins but capping peaks under partial cloudiness. Historical March 21 highs average 13°C, but recent warming trends and low wind shear differentiate outcomes—16°C hinges on clearer skies in afternoon model runs, while 14°C accounts for lingering frontal boundaries per China Meteorological Administration updates. Traders eye today's 12Z forecast refresh for resolution cues.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions