Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Seattle's March 22 high temperature falling in the 50-55°F range, driven primarily by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting a marine layer and persistent low-level clouds capping highs around 52°F amid a weak upper-level ridge. Differentiating the closely matched 50-51°F (24%), 52-53°F (26.5%), and 54-55°F (22%) bins are subtle model divergences: the GFS shows slightly stronger onshore flow enhancing coastal cooling, while ECMWF hints at partial afternoon clearing potentially nudging peaks higher. Historical March 22 averages hover near 54°F, but current sea surface temperatures off the Pacific Northwest—about 1°F above normal—support mild conditions without extremes, with over 70% model probability for dry weather minimizing diurnal swings. Upcoming 12z model runs could shift odds further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3月22日西雅圖的最高溫度?
3月22日西雅圖的最高溫度?
52-53°F 27%
54-55°F 22%
50-51°F 19%
48-49°F 17%
華氏45度或以下
7%
46-47°F
15%
48-49°F
17%
50-51°F
24%
52-53°F
27%
54-55°F
22%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
15%
60-61°F
10%
62-63°F
8%
華氏64度或更高
7%
52-53°F 27%
54-55°F 22%
50-51°F 19%
48-49°F 17%
華氏45度或以下
7%
46-47°F
15%
48-49°F
17%
50-51°F
24%
52-53°F
27%
54-55°F
22%
56-57°F
17%
58-59°F
15%
60-61°F
10%
62-63°F
8%
華氏64度或更高
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Seattle-Tacoma International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/wa/seatac/KSEAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Seattle's March 22 high temperature falling in the 50-55°F range, driven primarily by the latest NOAA GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts projecting a marine layer and persistent low-level clouds capping highs around 52°F amid a weak upper-level ridge. Differentiating the closely matched 50-51°F (24%), 52-53°F (26.5%), and 54-55°F (22%) bins are subtle model divergences: the GFS shows slightly stronger onshore flow enhancing coastal cooling, while ECMWF hints at partial afternoon clearing potentially nudging peaks higher. Historical March 22 averages hover near 54°F, but current sea surface temperatures off the Pacific Northwest—about 1°F above normal—support mild conditions without extremes, with over 70% model probability for dry weather minimizing diurnal swings. Upcoming 12z model runs could shift odds further.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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