Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a Tel Aviv high of 17-19°C on March 22, with 18°C at 24.5% implied probability amid tight clustering that reflects model spread from sea breeze moderation and variable cloud cover. Historical March maxima average 19.5°C per Israel Meteorological Service data, but a recent mid-latitude trough has cooled upper-air patterns, favoring 17-18°C in high-resolution runs while 20°C+ odds (17%) hinge on clearer skies boosting insolation. Short-term uncertainty stems from evolving geopotential height forecasts over the Levant, differentiating the top outcomes as traders await 00Z model updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
Highest temperature in Tel Aviv on March 22?
18°C 32%
19°C 32%
17°C 27%
20°C 17%
13°C or below
6%
14°C
7%
15°C
10%
16°C
17%
17°C
27%
18°C
26%
19°C
20%
20°C
17%
21°C
9%
22°C
16%
23°C or higher
6%
18°C 32%
19°C 32%
17°C 27%
20°C 17%
13°C or below
6%
14°C
7%
15°C
10%
16°C
17%
17°C
27%
18°C
26%
19°C
20%
20°C
17%
21°C
9%
22°C
16%
23°C or higher
6%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Ben Gurion Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/il/tel-aviv/LLBGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a Tel Aviv high of 17-19°C on March 22, with 18°C at 24.5% implied probability amid tight clustering that reflects model spread from sea breeze moderation and variable cloud cover. Historical March maxima average 19.5°C per Israel Meteorological Service data, but a recent mid-latitude trough has cooled upper-air patterns, favoring 17-18°C in high-resolution runs while 20°C+ odds (17%) hinge on clearer skies boosting insolation. Short-term uncertainty stems from evolving geopotential height forecasts over the Levant, differentiating the top outcomes as traders await 00Z model updates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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