Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin margins among 86-91°F outcomes at 28.5% implied probabilities each, driven by NOAA's latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts centering highs around 88°F for Austin on March 24. Persistent upper-level ridging over the southern Plains is funneling warm southerly winds aloft, with surface dewpoints near 60°F fueling daytime heating under mostly sunny skies. Differentiating factors include model spread from thin high cirrus potentially capping peaks at 86-87°F versus clearer conditions pushing 90-91°F, alongside low soil moisture reducing evaporative cooling. Historical March averages hover at 78°F, but recent dry anomalies amplify upside risk; watch 12z model updates for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 24?
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 29%
84-85°F 28%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
29%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
17%
98°F or higher
19%
88-89°F 35%
86-87°F 29%
90-91°F 29%
84-85°F 28%
79°F or below
2%
80-81°F
25%
82-83°F
26%
84-85°F
28%
86-87°F
29%
88-89°F
29%
90-91°F
29%
92-93°F
27%
94-95°F
18%
96-97°F
17%
98°F or higher
19%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 20, 2026, 6:25 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket reflects razor-thin margins among 86-91°F outcomes at 28.5% implied probabilities each, driven by NOAA's latest GFS and ECMWF ensemble forecasts centering highs around 88°F for Austin on March 24. Persistent upper-level ridging over the southern Plains is funneling warm southerly winds aloft, with surface dewpoints near 60°F fueling daytime heating under mostly sunny skies. Differentiating factors include model spread from thin high cirrus potentially capping peaks at 86-87°F versus clearer conditions pushing 90-91°F, alongside low soil moisture reducing evaporative cooling. Historical March averages hover at 78°F, but recent dry anomalies amplify upside risk; watch 12z model updates for resolution shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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