Trader consensus favors a London high of 14°C at 30% implied probability, closely trailed by 13°C and 15°C, driven by the latest ECMWF and UK Met Office ensemble forecasts indicating mild southwest airflow ahead of a weak frontal system on March 21. This setup, under a positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase, supports above-seasonal norms—historical averages hover around 11°C—but model spreads highlight uncertainty: persistent high pressure could yield sunnier skies boosting to 15-16°C, while increased cloud cover or northerly shear caps at 12-13°C. Recent runs reduced odds for sub-12°C outcomes, reflecting weakened cold air risks, with final hourly observations from Heathrow determining resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於3月21日倫敦的最高溫度?
3月21日倫敦的最高溫度?
14°C 29%
13°C 26%
15°C 24%
16°C 12%
$12,254 交易量
$12,254 交易量
8°C或以下
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
9%
13°C
26%
14°C
29%
15°C
24%
16°C
12%
17°C
3%
18°C或以上
3%
14°C 29%
13°C 26%
15°C 24%
16°C 12%
$12,254 交易量
$12,254 交易量
8°C或以下
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
1%
11°C
2%
12°C
9%
13°C
26%
14°C
29%
15°C
24%
16°C
12%
17°C
3%
18°C或以上
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the London City Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 17, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/gb/london/EGLCResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors a London high of 14°C at 30% implied probability, closely trailed by 13°C and 15°C, driven by the latest ECMWF and UK Met Office ensemble forecasts indicating mild southwest airflow ahead of a weak frontal system on March 21. This setup, under a positive North Atlantic Oscillation phase, supports above-seasonal norms—historical averages hover around 11°C—but model spreads highlight uncertainty: persistent high pressure could yield sunnier skies boosting to 15-16°C, while increased cloud cover or northerly shear caps at 12-13°C. Recent runs reduced odds for sub-12°C outcomes, reflecting weakened cold air risks, with final hourly observations from Heathrow determining resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions