Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 24°C (48% implied probability) at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 3, closely followed by 23°C (27%), driven by global forecast model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF hinting at peaks near 24°C amid clearing skies, despite the China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance—issued April 2 evening—pegging a maximum of 22°C under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds of 16-24 km/h. These winds, post a recent warm spell across northern China with highs near 25°C last week, limit convective heating while aligning with early April climatology averaging 17-20°C highs; urban heat island effects at the airport may boost readings slightly above city forecasts. Uncertainty persists with intraday CMA updates and real-time observations determining resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於Highest temperature in Beijing on April 3?
Highest temperature in Beijing on April 3?
24°C 47.9%
23°C 26%
25°C 11.4%
22°C 10%
$85,829 交易量
$85,829 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
10%
23°C
26%
24°C
48%
25°C
11%
26°C or higher
3%
24°C 47.9%
23°C 26%
25°C 11.4%
22°C 10%
$85,829 交易量
$85,829 交易量
16°C or below
<1%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
2%
22°C
10%
23°C
26%
24°C
48%
25°C
11%
26°C or higher
3%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
市場開放時間: Mar 29, 2026, 3:14 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Trader consensus on Polymarket heavily favors a highest temperature of 24°C (48% implied probability) at Beijing Capital International Airport on April 3, closely followed by 23°C (27%), driven by global forecast model ensembles like GFS and ECMWF hinting at peaks near 24°C amid clearing skies, despite the China Meteorological Administration's latest guidance—issued April 2 evening—pegging a maximum of 22°C under persistent cloud cover and northerly winds of 16-24 km/h. These winds, post a recent warm spell across northern China with highs near 25°C last week, limit convective heating while aligning with early April climatology averaging 17-20°C highs; urban heat island effects at the airport may boost readings slightly above city forecasts. Uncertainty persists with intraday CMA updates and real-time observations determining resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions