Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 98% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasizing a "wait-and-see" approach amid oil supply shocks from geopolitical tensions and steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year. Softening labor data, including February's 92,000 job loss and rising 4.4% unemployment, has tempered rate-cut expectations to just one later in 2026 per the March dot plot, while upside inflation risks from energy prices deter hikes. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls, where hotter-than-expected prints could challenge the no-change positioning by reigniting policy debates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於無變動 98.0%
上調25個基點以上 <1%
降息25個基點 <1%
降息超過50個基點 <1%
$47,185,090 交易量
$47,185,090 交易量
2026-04-29
降息超過50個基點
<1%
降息25個基點
1%
無變動
98%
上調25個基點以上
1%
無變動 98.0%
上調25個基點以上 <1%
降息25個基點 <1%
降息超過50個基點 <1%
$47,185,090 交易量
$47,185,090 交易量
2026-04-29
降息超過50個基點
$16,639,415 交易量
<1%
降息25個基點
$9,605,432 交易量
1%
無變動
$10,116,271 交易量
98%
上調25個基點以上
$10,827,806 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 98% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasizing a "wait-and-see" approach amid oil supply shocks from geopolitical tensions and steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year. Softening labor data, including February's 92,000 job loss and rising 4.4% unemployment, has tempered rate-cut expectations to just one later in 2026 per the March dot plot, while upside inflation risks from energy prices deter hikes. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls, where hotter-than-expected prints could challenge the no-change positioning by reigniting policy debates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ET
交易量
$47,185,090結束日期
2026-04-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 98% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasizing a "wait-and-see" approach amid oil supply shocks from geopolitical tensions and steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year. Softening labor data, including February's 92,000 job loss and rising 4.4% unemployment, has tempered rate-cut expectations to just one later in 2026 per the March dot plot, while upside inflation risks from energy prices deter hikes. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls, where hotter-than-expected prints could challenge the no-change positioning by reigniting policy debates.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal fund range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's April 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for April 28-29, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their April meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$47,185,090結束日期
2026-04-29市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 7:26 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket overwhelmingly prices a 98% implied probability for the Federal Reserve to hold the federal funds rate steady at 3.50%-3.75% in the April 28-29 FOMC meeting, reflecting Chair Powell's March 30 Harvard remarks emphasizing a "wait-and-see" approach amid oil supply shocks from geopolitical tensions and steady February CPI at 2.4% year-over-year. Softening labor data, including February's 92,000 job loss and rising 4.4% unemployment, has tempered rate-cut expectations to just one later in 2026 per the March dot plot, while upside inflation risks from energy prices deter hikes. Key catalysts ahead include March CPI on April 10 and nonfarm payrolls, where hotter-than-expected prints could challenge the no-change positioning by reigniting policy debates.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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