Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Republicans at 93.5% to win the Arkansas Senate seat in November 2026, driven by the state's deep-red partisan makeup—Donald Trump won by 27 points in 2020—and consistent GOP dominance in federal races, with incumbents securing double-digit victories. Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R) enjoys strong incumbency advantages, including superior fundraising, high name recognition from his committee roles, and no serious Democratic challenger announced amid weak statewide generic ballot polling averages favoring Republicans by 20+ points. Absent recent catalysts in the past 30 days to alter dynamics, scenarios like a major Cotton scandal, unexpected high-profile Democrat recruitment, or a national Democratic wave could challenge this positioning before primaries and the general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
94%
民主黨
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
$0 交易量
94%
民主黨
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Republicans at 93.5% to win the Arkansas Senate seat in November 2026, driven by the state's deep-red partisan makeup—Donald Trump won by 27 points in 2020—and consistent GOP dominance in federal races, with incumbents securing double-digit victories. Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R) enjoys strong incumbency advantages, including superior fundraising, high name recognition from his committee roles, and no serious Democratic challenger announced amid weak statewide generic ballot polling averages favoring Republicans by 20+ points. Absent recent catalysts in the past 30 days to alter dynamics, scenarios like a major Cotton scandal, unexpected high-profile Democrat recruitment, or a national Democratic wave could challenge this positioning before primaries and the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Republicans at 93.5% to win the Arkansas Senate seat in November 2026, driven by the state's deep-red partisan makeup—Donald Trump won by 27 points in 2020—and consistent GOP dominance in federal races, with incumbents securing double-digit victories. Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R) enjoys strong incumbency advantages, including superior fundraising, high name recognition from his committee roles, and no serious Democratic challenger announced amid weak statewide generic ballot polling averages favoring Republicans by 20+ points. Absent recent catalysts in the past 30 days to alter dynamics, scenarios like a major Cotton scandal, unexpected high-profile Democrat recruitment, or a national Democratic wave could challenge this positioning before primaries and the general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus overwhelmingly backs Republicans at 93.5% to win the Arkansas Senate seat in November 2026, driven by the state's deep-red partisan makeup—Donald Trump won by 27 points in 2020—and consistent GOP dominance in federal races, with incumbents securing double-digit victories. Incumbent Sen. Tom Cotton (R) enjoys strong incumbency advantages, including superior fundraising, high name recognition from his committee roles, and no serious Democratic challenger announced amid weak statewide generic ballot polling averages favoring Republicans by 20+ points. Absent recent catalysts in the past 30 days to alter dynamics, scenarios like a major Cotton scandal, unexpected high-profile Democrat recruitment, or a national Democratic wave could challenge this positioning before primaries and the general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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