Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race, solidified by his dominant 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a GOP victory. Arkansas' deep-red partisan lean—no Democratic Senate win since 1992—combined with Cotton's strong fundraising ($9.7 million cash on hand) and a February GrayHouse poll showing him leading nominee Hallie Shoffner 58%-36%, underscores the lopsided matchup against the low-profile Democratic farmer. Midterm dynamics favor incumbents in safe seats like this, per historical base rates. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, Cotton health issues, or a national anti-Republican wave boosting turnout, though structural barriers loom large ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
94%
民主黨
6%
NEW
NEW
Nov 3, 2026
共和黨
$0 交易量
94%
民主黨
$0 交易量
6%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race, solidified by his dominant 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a GOP victory. Arkansas' deep-red partisan lean—no Democratic Senate win since 1992—combined with Cotton's strong fundraising ($9.7 million cash on hand) and a February GrayHouse poll showing him leading nominee Hallie Shoffner 58%-36%, underscores the lopsided matchup against the low-profile Democratic farmer. Midterm dynamics favor incumbents in safe seats like this, per historical base rates. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, Cotton health issues, or a national anti-Republican wave boosting turnout, though structural barriers loom large ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ET
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race, solidified by his dominant 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a GOP victory. Arkansas' deep-red partisan lean—no Democratic Senate win since 1992—combined with Cotton's strong fundraising ($9.7 million cash on hand) and a February GrayHouse poll showing him leading nominee Hallie Shoffner 58%-36%, underscores the lopsided matchup against the low-profile Democratic farmer. Midterm dynamics favor incumbents in safe seats like this, per historical base rates. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, Cotton health issues, or a national anti-Republican wave boosting turnout, though structural barriers loom large ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Arkansas U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$0結束日期
Nov 3, 2026市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 5:35 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Sen. Tom Cotton's commanding position in the Arkansas Senate race, solidified by his dominant 82% win in the March 3 Republican primary, drives trader consensus at 93.5% for a GOP victory. Arkansas' deep-red partisan lean—no Democratic Senate win since 1992—combined with Cotton's strong fundraising ($9.7 million cash on hand) and a February GrayHouse poll showing him leading nominee Hallie Shoffner 58%-36%, underscores the lopsided matchup against the low-profile Democratic farmer. Midterm dynamics favor incumbents in safe seats like this, per historical base rates. Upsets remain possible via late scandals, Cotton health issues, or a national anti-Republican wave boosting turnout, though structural barriers loom large ahead of the November 3 general election.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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