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科技·Claude 5

Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在Humanity's Last Exam上得分？

Market icon
科技·Claude 5

Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在Humanity's Last Exam上得分？

$187,860 交易量

2026-06-30
Polymarket

$187,860 交易量

Polymarket

35%+

$66,631 交易量

92%

45%+

$76,451 交易量

41%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, released in February 2026, have propelled the company's frontier large language models to around 33-35% accuracy on Humanity's Last Exam—a rigorous multi-modal benchmark of 2,500 expert-level questions across over 100 subjects, finalized in April 2025. These scores mark a significant leap from prior Claude 4.5 models at under 14%, reflecting advances in extended reasoning and agentic capabilities amid intense competition from OpenAI's GPT-5 series (up to 42%) and Google's Gemini 3 Pro (around 38-45%). With no major updates in March, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's rapid iteration pace, potentially delivering Claude 4.7 or 5.0 before June 30 resolution, alongside evolving leaderboard methodologies distinguishing tool-assisted from standard evaluations. Key watch: official HLE dashboard submissions and developer conference announcements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
交易量
$187,860
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.Anthropic's Claude Opus 4.6 and Sonnet 4.6, released in February 2026, have propelled the company's frontier large language models to around 33-35% accuracy on Humanity's Last Exam—a rigorous multi-modal benchmark of 2,500 expert-level questions across over 100 subjects, finalized in April 2025. These scores mark a significant leap from prior Claude 4.5 models at under 14%, reflecting advances in extended reasoning and agentic capabilities amid intense competition from OpenAI's GPT-5 series (up to 42%) and Google's Gemini 3 Pro (around 38-45%). With no major updates in March, trader sentiment hinges on Anthropic's rapid iteration pace, potentially delivering Claude 4.7 or 5.0 before June 30 resolution, alongside evolving leaderboard methodologies distinguishing tool-assisted from standard evaluations. Key watch: official HLE dashboard submissions and developer conference announcements.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.
交易量
$187,860
結束日期
2026-06-30
市場開放時間
Jan 30, 2026, 12:00 AM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard lists any Anthropic Claude model with a score of at least the specified score by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source will be the official Humanity’s Last Exam leaderboard https://scale.com/leaderboard/humanitys_last_exam.

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在Humanity's Last Exam上得分？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 3 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "30% 以上" at 100%, followed by "35%+" at 92%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在Humanity's Last Exam上得分？" has generated $187.9K in total trading volume since the market launched on Jan 30, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在Humanity's Last Exam上得分？," browse the 3 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在Humanity's Last Exam上得分？" is "30% 以上" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "35%+" at 92%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "Anthropic Claude在6月30日前在Humanity's Last Exam上得分？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.