Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance in statewide races, unbroken since Democrats last won the governorship in 1998, drives trader consensus toward a 93.9% implied probability for a GOP victory on November 3, 2026. U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville leads the May 19 Republican primary polls at 63% per recent Quantus Insights data, bolstered by endorsements from Donald Trump, Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth—who declined to run—and business groups like the Alabama Realtors PAC, plus over $11 million in fundraising. Democrat Doug Jones leads his primary in funds but trails in a November 2025 Cygnal poll, 34% to Tuberville's 53%. Challenges could arise from Tuberville's ongoing residency lawsuit, a GOP primary upset, nominee scandal, or rare urban turnout surge, though ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid R" underscore barriers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於最新
最新
2026-11-03
Republican
94%
Democrat
7%
最新
最新
2026-11-03
Republican
$1,407 交易量
94%
Democrat
$1,569 交易量
7%
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance in statewide races, unbroken since Democrats last won the governorship in 1998, drives trader consensus toward a 93.9% implied probability for a GOP victory on November 3, 2026. U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville leads the May 19 Republican primary polls at 63% per recent Quantus Insights data, bolstered by endorsements from Donald Trump, Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth—who declined to run—and business groups like the Alabama Realtors PAC, plus over $11 million in fundraising. Democrat Doug Jones leads his primary in funds but trails in a November 2025 Cygnal poll, 34% to Tuberville's 53%. Challenges could arise from Tuberville's ongoing residency lawsuit, a GOP primary upset, nominee scandal, or rare urban turnout surge, though ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid R" underscore barriers.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
市場開放時間： Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ET
交易量
$2,976結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance in statewide races, unbroken since Democrats last won the governorship in 1998, drives trader consensus toward a 93.9% implied probability for a GOP victory on November 3, 2026. U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville leads the May 19 Republican primary polls at 63% per recent Quantus Insights data, bolstered by endorsements from Donald Trump, Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth—who declined to run—and business groups like the Alabama Realtors PAC, plus over $11 million in fundraising. Democrat Doug Jones leads his primary in funds but trails in a November 2025 Cygnal poll, 34% to Tuberville's 53%. Challenges could arise from Tuberville's ongoing residency lawsuit, a GOP primary upset, nominee scandal, or rare urban turnout surge, though ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid R" underscore barriers.
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Alabama gubernatorial election.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the party in question. Candidates other than the Democratic or Republican nominee (e.g., Greens, Libertarian, independent) may be added at a later date.
Candidates who run as independents will not be encompassed by the “Democrat” or “Republican” options regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party.
The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources call the race for the same candidate. If all three sources haven’t called the race in this state for the same candidate, this market will resolve based on the official certification.
交易量
$2,976結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Oct 13, 2025, 6:38 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Alabama's entrenched Republican dominance in statewide races, unbroken since Democrats last won the governorship in 1998, drives trader consensus toward a 93.9% implied probability for a GOP victory on November 3, 2026. U.S. Sen. Tommy Tuberville leads the May 19 Republican primary polls at 63% per recent Quantus Insights data, bolstered by endorsements from Donald Trump, Lt. Gov. Will Ainsworth—who declined to run—and business groups like the Alabama Realtors PAC, plus over $11 million in fundraising. Democrat Doug Jones leads his primary in funds but trails in a November 2025 Cygnal poll, 34% to Tuberville's 53%. Challenges could arise from Tuberville's ongoing residency lawsuit, a GOP primary upset, nominee scandal, or rare urban turnout surge, though ratings like Cook Political Report's "Solid R" underscore barriers.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要 · 更新於
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