Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa anchors strong trader consensus in California's 21st congressional district, where the Central Valley seat carries a D+6 partisan lean based on recent presidential voting after mid-decade redistricting. Major forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration edge and Costa's established fundraising lead over multiple Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Republican candidates appear limited in resources and visibility, narrowing any path to general election success on November 3. This positioning explains the current implied probabilities, as traders weigh the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee against the broader 2026 midterm environment where the party out of power typically gains ground.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-21 House Election Winner
CA-21 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
88%
Republican Party
12%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$2,884 Обс.
88%
Republican Party
$1,394 Обс.
12%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa anchors strong trader consensus in California's 21st congressional district, where the Central Valley seat carries a D+6 partisan lean based on recent presidential voting after mid-decade redistricting. Major forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration edge and Costa's established fundraising lead over multiple Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Republican candidates appear limited in resources and visibility, narrowing any path to general election success on November 3. This positioning explains the current implied probabilities, as traders weigh the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee against the broader 2026 midterm environment where the party out of power typically gains ground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ET
Обсяг
$4,278Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa anchors strong trader consensus in California's 21st congressional district, where the Central Valley seat carries a D+6 partisan lean based on recent presidential voting after mid-decade redistricting. Major forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration edge and Costa's established fundraising lead over multiple Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Republican candidates appear limited in resources and visibility, narrowing any path to general election success on November 3. This positioning explains the current implied probabilities, as traders weigh the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee against the broader 2026 midterm environment where the party out of power typically gains ground.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-21 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$4,278Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 12:08 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Jim Costa anchors strong trader consensus in California's 21st congressional district, where the Central Valley seat carries a D+6 partisan lean based on recent presidential voting after mid-decade redistricting. Major forecasters rate the race Likely Democratic, reflecting the district's voter registration edge and Costa's established fundraising lead over multiple Democratic primary challengers ahead of the June 2 top-two primary. Republican candidates appear limited in resources and visibility, narrowing any path to general election success on November 3. This positioning explains the current implied probabilities, as traders weigh the structural advantages for the Democratic nominee against the broader 2026 midterm environment where the party out of power typically gains ground.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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