Redistricting under California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, transformed CA-03 into a solidly Democratic district where Kamala Harris won by 10 points in 2024, prompting ratings of Solid Democratic from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D), previously of CA-06, is running with dominant fundraising exceeding $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March, facing a crowded Democratic primary field including Heidi Hall and Chris Bennett, alongside weaker Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Kevin Kiley (R) opted not to run here post-redistricting. With the top-two primary on June 2, traders price Democratic Party victory at 86% implied probability, reflecting the district's leftward shift and Bera's institutional edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-03 House Election Winner
CA-03 House Election Winner
$25,113 Обс.
$25,113 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
86%
Republican Party
8%
$25,113 Обс.
$25,113 Обс.
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$13,178 Обс.
86%
Republican Party
$11,935 Обс.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, transformed CA-03 into a solidly Democratic district where Kamala Harris won by 10 points in 2024, prompting ratings of Solid Democratic from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D), previously of CA-06, is running with dominant fundraising exceeding $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March, facing a crowded Democratic primary field including Heidi Hall and Chris Bennett, alongside weaker Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Kevin Kiley (R) opted not to run here post-redistricting. With the top-two primary on June 2, traders price Democratic Party victory at 86% implied probability, reflecting the district's leftward shift and Bera's institutional edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
Обсяг
$25,113Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Redistricting under California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, transformed CA-03 into a solidly Democratic district where Kamala Harris won by 10 points in 2024, prompting ratings of Solid Democratic from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D), previously of CA-06, is running with dominant fundraising exceeding $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March, facing a crowded Democratic primary field including Heidi Hall and Chris Bennett, alongside weaker Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Kevin Kiley (R) opted not to run here post-redistricting. With the top-two primary on June 2, traders price Democratic Party victory at 86% implied probability, reflecting the district's leftward shift and Bera's institutional edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-03 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$25,113Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Redistricting under California Proposition 50, approved in November 2025, transformed CA-03 into a solidly Democratic district where Kamala Harris won by 10 points in 2024, prompting ratings of Solid Democratic from Cook Political Report, Inside Elections, and Sabato's Crystal Ball. Incumbent Rep. Ami Bera (D), previously of CA-06, is running with dominant fundraising exceeding $1.8 million cash on hand as of late March, facing a crowded Democratic primary field including Heidi Hall and Chris Bennett, alongside weaker Republican challengers like Christine Bish and Robb Tucker. Kevin Kiley (R) opted not to run here post-redistricting. With the top-two primary on June 2, traders price Democratic Party victory at 86% implied probability, reflecting the district's leftward shift and Bera's institutional edge ahead of the November 3 general election.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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