Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding lead in California's 47th congressional district heading into the June 2 top-two primary, reflecting the seat's strong Democratic tilt after recent redistricting. The district, encompassing parts of coastal Orange County including Irvine and Laguna Beach, supported Kamala Harris by 10 points in 2024 and carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+6. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the primary featuring Min against several Republican challengers and the November general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 92.5% implied probability of victory. Factors that could narrow this margin include an unusually strong Republican nominee emerging from the primary, shifts in national political conditions, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters, though the district's underlying partisan composition limits the scope for such changes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоCA-47 House Election Winner
CA-47 House Election Winner
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
93%
Republican Party
6%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Nov 3, 2026
Democratic Party
$1,162 Обс.
93%
Republican Party
$6,700 Обс.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding lead in California's 47th congressional district heading into the June 2 top-two primary, reflecting the seat's strong Democratic tilt after recent redistricting. The district, encompassing parts of coastal Orange County including Irvine and Laguna Beach, supported Kamala Harris by 10 points in 2024 and carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+6. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the primary featuring Min against several Republican challengers and the November general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 92.5% implied probability of victory. Factors that could narrow this margin include an unusually strong Republican nominee emerging from the primary, shifts in national political conditions, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters, though the district's underlying partisan composition limits the scope for such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Ринок відкрито: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$7,862Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding lead in California's 47th congressional district heading into the June 2 top-two primary, reflecting the seat's strong Democratic tilt after recent redistricting. The district, encompassing parts of coastal Orange County including Irvine and Laguna Beach, supported Kamala Harris by 10 points in 2024 and carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+6. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the primary featuring Min against several Republican challengers and the November general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 92.5% implied probability of victory. Factors that could narrow this margin include an unusually strong Republican nominee emerging from the primary, shifts in national political conditions, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters, though the district's underlying partisan composition limits the scope for such changes.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-47 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 4, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Обсяг
$7,862Дата завершення
Nov 3, 2026Ринок відкрито
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Dave Min holds a commanding lead in California's 47th congressional district heading into the June 2 top-two primary, reflecting the seat's strong Democratic tilt after recent redistricting. The district, encompassing parts of coastal Orange County including Irvine and Laguna Beach, supported Kamala Harris by 10 points in 2024 and carries a Cook Partisan Voting Index of D+6. Multiple nonpartisan forecasters rate the general election as Solid or Safe Democratic. With the primary featuring Min against several Republican challengers and the November general election still months away, trader consensus assigns the Democratic nominee a 92.5% implied probability of victory. Factors that could narrow this margin include an unusually strong Republican nominee emerging from the primary, shifts in national political conditions, or unusually high turnout among Republican-leaning voters, though the district's underlying partisan composition limits the scope for such changes.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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